The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will continue their four-game series on Wednesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
This is another important series for the Giants. They're currently clinging to a three-game lead in the NL West, barely staying ahead of the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco needs to continue to win these easy matchups to continue to hold this division lead. The Diamondbacks haven't thought about the postseason since 2017, but they would love to hand the Giants a loss and play a little bit of spoiler to their division rival.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday night's game.
MLB Odds: Giants-Diamondbacks Odds
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San Francisco Giants ML (-172)
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+158)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-125)
Under 8 1/2 runs (+105)
Why The Giants Could Win
San Francisco's pitching staff has been one of the most surprising groups in baseball, including Wednesday's starting pitcher Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been pitching at an elite level this season, earning a 2.35 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Those are Cy Young-worthy numbers, but they get even better whenever Gausman pitches on the road. His ERA at home is 3.34, but that number drops all the way to 1.55 on the road. The righty has a great opportunity to improve on those numbers against one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.
The Diamondbacks have been terrible in every facet of the game this season, but their offense is particularly hard to watch. They rank inside the bottom 10 in the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. They also rank in the bottom 10 in RBI and runs. There's not a lot to be afraid of in this lineup, so Gausman should cruise through them.
The Giants' lineup has great history against Arizona starter Zac Gallen. Gallen has put together decent numbers on the season, but San Francisco just has his number. He has made two appearances against the Giants this season, pitching a grand total of four innings while giving up seven runs in the process. San Francisco should be able to replicate its previous performances against Gallen on Wednesday.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Win
Gallen's season stats of a 4.61 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP aren't terrible, but both of those numbers improve whenever Gallen pitches at home. His ERA falls to 4.05 with his WHIP dropping down to 1.31. Those aren't stellar numbers, but they at least prove that Gallen can be halfway decent at home.
Helping Gallen is the fact that the Giants are a much worse offense whenever they're on the road. San Francisco's batting average at home is .257, but that drops all the way to .235 whenever playing anywhere else.
The Diamondbacks starter has a couple of advanced stats going his way too. Gallen only allows a barrel percentage of 7.3%, counteracting this San Francisco lineup that barrels at a fairly high rate.
Final Giants-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Giants will win this game, but the odds on their moneyline are a little too high for a bet. The under is the slightly riskier pick, it's more profitable. There is a risk of the Giants breaking the under on their own, but that's not likely. The Diamondbacks should be held to one or two scores, making this a pretty good bet, especially with underdog odds.
FINAL PICK: Under 8 1/2 runs (+105)
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