The Cleveland Guardians will take on the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Guardians-Twins prediction and pick.
This three-game series has huge implications for both of these teams. The Twins have battled their way to the top of the AL Central with a 38-30 record, but that mark only has them ahead of the Guardians by a single game. This series will either go a long way in securing the division for the Twins, or help the Guardians take a small lead. It all starts in this game, so let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Twins Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-140)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
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Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread
The Guardians enter this game as the underdog, a position that they've been comfortable in for much of this season. Cleveland has gone 18-15 against the spread when they enter the game as an underdog, a mark that puts them in the top half of the league in that category. The Guardians have also gone 19-17 against the spread when they play on the road, with a 34-28 record ATS overall. Cleveland has been a solid pick to cover the spread all year, and this situation seems like more of the same.
Despite their improving record, the Twins don't have all that much momentum coming into this game. They just lost a series to the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, and have gone 2-2 in their last four series overall. The Guardians, on the other hand, have all the momentum in the world. Cleveland has won nine of their last eleven contests, including a series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Guardians will walk into this one with a ton of confidence, and that could help propel them to yet another victory.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins are lucky enough to be facing Cleveland pitcher Aaron Civale in this matchup. Civale, who was just activated off of the injured list, was downright awful before he got hurt. He's made seven starts this year and has a 7.84 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP to show for it. Those are some of the worst numbers in the entire MLB. The last time the Twins faced Civale, they rocked him for seven hits, two homers, and six runs over four innings. It's fair to expect a similar level of production from the Minnesota offense in this contest.
Home field advantage will also play a big part in this contest. The Guardians have been significantly worse offensively when they play on the road, as they see a drop in nearly every single major batting stat when they're away from home. Twins starter Joe Ryan has been fantastic in Target Field, as he only allows opposing batters to hit .149 against him on his home turf. Meanwhile, Civale literally has an ERA of 12.00 on the road. That's through four contests, so it's not even that inflated. Hitters own a .373 batting average against Civale when he pitches on the road, which is even more reason to believe that the Twins will play well offensively here.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick
This is a fairly easy pick. It would be a surprise to see this game end any other way but a Minnesota blowout. Lock in the Twins to win by a hefty amount here.
Final Guardians-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5 (+116)
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