The Miami Marlins (64-90) take on the New York Mets (97-58) in the second of a brief two-game series on Wednesday night. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-7) is the projected starter for the Marlins, while Taijuan Walker (12-5) will take the mound for the Mets. First pitch is slated for 7:10 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Mets prediction and pick.

Jesus Luzardo will make his 17th start of the season for Miami. The young southpaw is in the midst of a career year in his second season with the Marlins. For the year, Luzardo has gone just 3-7 but his underlying numbers have been excellent. Luzardo holds a 3.57 ERA and has struck out 102 batters in just 88 innings pitched. He has great swing-and-miss stuff on the mound, especially of late. In his most recent outing, Luzardo gave up just 1 run in 6 2/3 innings. In the eventual Marlins loss, Luzardo allowed just 3 hits while striking out 11 batters.

That quality start continued a trend of stellar outings in September. For the month, Luzardo has a 3.91 ERA but notably holds a 29:7 strikeout to walk ratio. Luzardo has pitched against the Mets in one previous start this season. He lasted just 3 1/3 innings thanks to giving up 5 runs. Whether or not Luzardo is able to corral a potent Mets offense will be a major factor in making a Marlins-Mets prediction.

For the Mets, righty Taijuan Walker will make his 28th start of the season. In 149 innings, Walker has struck out 114 batters while maintaining a respectable 3.53 ERA. Although he has battled inconsistency throughout the year, Walker has been excellent against Miami. In five starts against the Marlins, Walker holds a 4-0 record. The veteran holds a 2.23 ERA against Miami in those games – his lowest against any team he’s started multiple times against. Although not known for his strikeouts, he’s punched out 35 Marlins in his 32 innings of work against them. Walker is coming off a loss against the Brewers last week where he allowed 4 runs in 6 innings.

Here are the Marlins-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds

Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-134)

New York Mets: -1.5 (+112)

Over: 7 (+102)

Under: 7 (-124)

Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

The Marlins have been abysmal at the plate this year. They are dead last in the National League in runs scored. Despite that, they’re coming off an impressive 6-4 victory over the Mets in last night’s game. The Marlins managed to force Mets starter, Carlos Carrasco, out of the game early thanks to scoring four runs in the first 3 innings. Outfielder Brian Anderson continued his hot streak of late as the 29-year-old pieced together a 3-hit game.

While Anderson played the hero last night with his efforts, it may fall to lead off man Job Berti to do so tonight. Berti struggled last night but has been one of Miami’s stronger hitters this season with a .243 average in 2022. Berti has excelled in his career against Mets and projected starter Taijuan Walker. In 13 plate appearances against Walker, Berti has collected 7 hits… good for a .538 batting average. Berti’s track record against Walker is worth keeping in mind when making a Marlins-Mets prediction.

Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread

While the Mets have one of the best record in baseball, they’ve allowed the defending champion Atlanta Braves to close the gap in the National League East. New York led the division by over 10 games back in June, but inconsistent play has allowed the Braves to climb back and tie things up with just under two weeks remaining in the season. That sounds bad for Mets fans, but betters can take advantage of a desperate Mets team in tonight’s game.

Despite their close race with Atlanta, New York was unable to pull out last night’s game against the last-place Marlins. Given this is just a two-game series, the Mets cannot afford to drop another with a huge series with the Braves looming this weekend. With a stellar top of the lineup featuring Brandon Nimmo (.268 average), Francisco Lindor (.275 average), Jeff McNeil (.318 average), and Pete Alonso (.270 average) the Mets have a huge advantage in the hitting department.

Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick

Taijuan Walker has been lights out against the Mets this season and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. Miami has struggled at the plate all season long and that should continue tonight. Given the Mets are in such a tight divisional race, they’ll be highly motivated to finish off Miami as they head into a pivotal weekend series with the Braves. Throw in some plus odds for the Mets’ line, and this pick is easy.

Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+112)