MLB odds: Marlins vs. Nationals prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/21/2021
The Marlins showed some life against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but have lost seven of their last nine games since that series. The Nationals held the second-best record in the NL East at one point, but they’ve fallen behind both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves in the chase to catch the first-place New York Mets. Miami will try to play spoiler in what is an important game for the Nationals.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Wednesday’s matchup.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Nationals Odds
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Miami Marlins ML (+134)
Washington Nationals ML (-145)
Over 9.5 runs (-110)
Under 9.5 runs (-110)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have been on a bit of an offensive cold streak, but Wednesday’s game is the perfect opportunity to turn things around at the plate. Miami will face Nationals starter Erick Fedde.
Fedde has had a rough season for Washington. He owns a 5.32 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP on the year, with both of those numbers slightly increasing in his last seven starts. Surprisingly, Fedde is a much worse pitcher at home than he is on the road. He holds an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.53 when playing in Nationals Park, so this is a matchup that the Marlins should be able to exploit.
Another factor going Miami’s way is that they are slightly better when facing right-handed pitching. The Marlins see a small jump in all of their major batting stats when facing righties.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington remains one of the most underrated offensive teams in MLB. As a team, they rank in the top ten in the league in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage. This lineup has put up more than four runs in four of their last five games. They’ll be looking to stay hot against Miami starter Nick Neidert in Wednesday’s game.
Neidert has only made five appearances for Miami this season, earning a 4.50 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over 20 innings of work. It’s hard to evaluate such a small sample size, but Neidert seems different. He’s struck out the same amount of batters that he’s walked, while also never pitching past the fourth inning. The Nationals should be able to score off of him early and often.
When Neidert inevitably leaves the game in the third or fourth inning, the Nationals will gain an even bigger advantage. The Marlins bullpen isn’t terrible, but asking them to pitch five or six innings against one of the league’s best offenses is just too big of an ask. The Nationals should be able to put up a ton of runs throughout this game.
Final Marlins – Nationals Prediction & Pick
There’s no chance that I’m betting on the Marlins in this one. The Nationals are a good bet but the odds aren’t quite good enough to place a bet on them. The over gives much better odds and has about the same chance of hitting. The Nationals could break that 9.5 runs mark all on their own.
FINAL PICK: Over 9.5 runs (-110)