The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will square off on Wednesday night at Citizens Bank Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Marlins-Phillies prediction and pick, laid out below.
The Miami Marlins are 55-79, officially eliminated from playoff contention, and securely in fourth place in the NL East. In two straight seasons, the team has been unable to build off the momentum of their 2020 playoff berth in a shortened season with expanded playoffs.
Philadelphia is 74-61, a distant third place in the NL East, but is clinging to the final NL Wild card position. The team has played infinitely better since the firing of Joe Girardi, and was able to labor through the absence of star slugger Bryce Harper.
Here are the Marlins-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Phillies Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-146)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 7.5 (-114)
Under: 7.5 (-106)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Miami will send Trevor Rogers to the mound, an impressive young lefty. Rogers has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in 93.2 innings across his 20 starts, striking out 88 batters. This is coming on the heels of a 2.64 ERA in his age 23 season in 2021. Rogers' fastball has been thrown at roughly the same speed on average, but the results are much worse in 2022 compared to 2021. Batters have hit over .100 points higher against Rogers' fastball this season. Miami's bullpen was pillaged at the trade deadline, but there is still some hope in the group. Surprising given their poor record, Miami's bullpen ranks 20th in the league with a 4.11 ERA, striking out 477 batters in 459.2 innings. Steven Okert has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 59 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. Dylan Floro has pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 39.1 innings. Batters are hitting a measly .135 against Floro's fastball, which averages 92.2 mph.
Miami's offense has been nothing to write home about in 2022. Losing Jazz Chisholm for the season did the club no favors, and Jorge Soler is also a huge loss. As a result, Miami ranks near the bottom in almost every offensive category. Jesus Sanchez leads the team with 12 home runs amongst active players. Garrett Cooper leads the team with 24 doubles, hitting seven home runs and a .251 batting average. The lineup is sorely missing their catalyst in Chisholm and a legitimate power threat in Soler. Miami leads the league with 109 stolen bases.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Bailey Falter is Philadelphia's starting pitcher today, making his fifteenth appearance and eleventh start. Falter has pitched to a 4.08 ERA in 57.1 innings, striking out 52. Falter's command is enviable, with a 5.4% walk rate that ranks in the 86th percentile. Batters have been bamboozled by Falter's fastball, managing just a .127 batting average against the pitch. Philadelphia's bullpen has improved, thanks in part to a reunion with closer David Robertson. Robertson has pitched to a 2.51 ERA with four saves and 18 strikeouts in 14.1 innings since coming to Philadelphia.
Kyle Schwarber leads a potent offense with 36 home runs and 78 RBI. Bryce Harper is back and healthy finally, hitting 15 home runs and 24 doubles in just 74 games. Rhys Hoskins is second on the team with 26 home runs and 26 doubles. JT Realmuto has stolen 17 bases to lead the team, hitting 15 home runs and 23 doubles. Nick Castellanos leads the team with 27 doubles, adding 13 home runs in his first season with the team. Alec Bohm leads the team with a .293 batting average, adding 10 home runs and 20 doubles.
Final Marlins-Phillies Prediction & Pick
This should be an easy choice.
Final Marlins-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 (+122), over 7.5 (-114)
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