The New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mets Braves prediction and pick.
Chris Bassitt goes to the mound for the Mets, while Charlie Morton starts for the Braves in this huge game.
We'll tackle the pitching matchup in a moment, but let's be clear: The Mets and Braves are playing the biggest game of their season. They have both played 158 games, but Game 159 might tell the tale. There is no Game 163 under the new 2022 playoff format. In the past, a tie in the standings would mean a one-game playoff the day after the end of the regular season. Not this year. Head-to-head record is the tiebreaker, and the winner of this game will win that tiebreaker. So, with the Braves leading the Mets by one game in the standings, here's the setup:
If the Braves win, they get the tiebreaker and a two-game lead. They would reduce their magic number for the N.L. East championship to just one game. They would basically (though not technically) lock up the East with a victory here.
If the Mets win Game 159, they would enter Game 160 tied with the Braves in the standings, but in possession of the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Braves would therefore have to finish ahead of the Mets through Game 162 to win the division. Given that the Mets host the woeful Washington Nationals Monday through Wednesday to finish the regular-season schedule, it's advantage Mets if they do win this Sunday Night Baseball battle.
Basically, the odds are high that the winner here wins the division. It's a mammoth game for two teams which have been battling the past three months for a championship and a bye in the wild card round.
Now, to the pitching matchup:
Chris Bassitt has been great for the Mets since coming over from the Oakland A's. Bassitt has been especially strong since the beginning of July: 89 1/3 innings pitched, 25 earned runs allowed. That's an ERA of just over 2.50. That's excellent. The Braves beat Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in the first two games of the series, but Bassitt is no slouch, and his consistency gives the Mets confidence that they can stay in this game and get the ball to Edwin Diaz with a chance to win in the eighth or ninth.
Charlie Morton has won a Game 7 in the World Series (in 2017 with the Houston Astros). He has won Game 7 in a league championship series (also with the Astros). He has been there and done that in the playoffs and in the World Series. He is a proven big-game pitcher. The pressure is hardly new to him. This is the moment he lives for. This is why the Braves have placed such faith and trust in him. It's go-time for a bulldog competitor who knows how to get good hitters out in big moments.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Braves MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (+196)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+162)
Over: 7.5 (-112)
Under: 7.5 (-108)
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
Chris Bassitt has been steady and reliable. Charlie Morton is a proven big-game pitcher, but he has hardly dominated this year, and is very attackable. The Mets' hitters have looked very tight the past two games. Maybe losing their division lead will loosen them up and liberate them at the plate. Having a non-ace on the mound might give them more urgency, too.
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
The Braves just beat Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in consecutive games. Dansby Swanson is hitting out of his mind. Matt Olson's bat is back after a recent slump. It is all coming together for Atlanta at precisely the right time. The Mets are tight as a drum at the plate. Charlie Morton can do what he has done so many times over the years in big games.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
It's a huge game, so it's natural to want to make a pick on it, but the margins here are small. You should stay away from this game. If you insist on a pick, though, the Braves are red-hot and are hard to ignore.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5
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