The New York Mets take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mets Brewers prediction and pick.
Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Mets. He will be opposed by Corbin Burnes of the Brewers in a spectacular pitching matchup.
It doesn't get much better than this. Max Scherzer versus Corbin Burnes in a September 19 game with high stakes for both teams involved. The Mets have no worries about making the playoffs, but they definitely want to win the National League East and save Scherzer himself for a full week in October. Avoiding the wild card series would enable the Mets to go with Scherzer in Game 2 of the National League Division Series with a full tank of energy. The Mets are certainly playing for a significant prize over the remaining two weeks of the regular season.
The Brewers are in the more obvious and existential battle for survival in the National League. They are desperately trying to keep pace with the San Diego Padres in the race for the third and final N.L. wild card spot. The Brewers did win a series over the weekend against the Yankees, but the Padres took care of business by winning three of four in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, so the Brewers' odds of making the playoffs decreased. They're very much in the hunt, but their margin for error is small.
Scherzer and Burnes must take the mound knowing their teams need them. It's baseball theater at its best.
Scherzer has had an injury-interrupted season. This is his second return to the Mets' rotation in 2022 after a prolonged injury absence. Scherzer has a 2.25 ERA in his last seven starts against the Brewers, but we really don't know what kind of pitcher we are going to see on Monday.
Burnes has a 2.97 ERA, which is certainly good, but it is not the dominant shutdown ace we have seen from Burnes in previous seasons. In his most recent outing last week against the Cardinals, Burnes was good — seven innings pitched, three runs allowed — but not great. The Brewers need him to be great in this game and in the stretch run. Burnes is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts versus the Mets. Those are awesome numbers, but the sample size is small.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+164)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-200)
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
Max Scherzer will outpitch Corbin Burnes. Scherzer is physically fresh due to the injury layoff. You will remember that the last time he came back from an injury, he was very strong in his first start against the Cincinnati Reds. He can certainly be as good in this start against the Brewers, who had a good hitting series against the Yankees over the weekend but have been very inconsistent at the plate this year. The Mets, meanwhile, scored a bunch of runs on Saturday and Sunday. Their hitting funk, which led to a sweep loss at the hands of the Chicago Cubs last week, seems to have ended.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
Corbin Burnes is fully within rhythm in terms of going to the mound every fifth day. Max Scherzer does not have that rhythm and will need to build it from scratch. The Brewers hit the Yankee pitching staff hard over the weekend, so Milwaukee could naturally carry that level of hitting into this game on Monday.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick
If you know who will win this pitching duel, make a play, but most of us should sit back and evaluate Max Scherzer and see how he looks. It's a stay-away game, but if you insist on a pick, taking the underdog plus the run and a half at home on the run line seems like the safest play.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers +1.5
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