The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins will begin a three-game series as the NL East division rivals battle in South Florida on Friday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mets-Marlins prediction and pick.


The Mets are 6-4 over 10 games and coming off a two-game series in which the Astros swept them. Naturally, they will attempt to rebound as they head to South Florida to take on the Mets. The Marlins are 5-5 over 10 games but riding some momentum. They finished off a three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies, and look to keep the momentum going. The Mets are 45-26 and in first place in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 32-36 and in fourth place in the NL East.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Marlins odds:

MLB odds: Mets-Marlins Odds

Mets: +1.5 (-182)

Marlins: -1.5 (-150)

Over: 7.5 (-102)

Under: 7.5 (-120)

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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread

The Mets are one of the best teams in baseball. They have talent throughout the organization and a balanced attack that has defeated many opponents.

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New York will put Taijuan Walker on the hill. Walker is 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA. He tossed 6 2/3 innings of work in his last outing, allowing one earned run on two hits with nine strikeouts. That outing came against the Marlins at home last week, and Walker looks to replicate the feat today in Miami. He has hit at least six innings in three straight starts and struck out nine in back-to-back starts. Walker did not allow a run in his last start until the seventh inning.

Walker has a great lineup to support him. The Mets rank second in batting average, first in on-base percentage, second in runs, 20th in home runs, and 12th in slugging percentage. Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor are their core players that keep the hits coming. Alonso has 20 home runs and 66 RBIs this year. Additionally, he went 3 for 14 in the series against Miami last week., collecting a home run and four RBIs. McNeil did not play against the Marlins and is questionable to play in this contest. Marte is hitting .278 with seven home runs and 36 RBIs. He went 4 for 16 in the series against Miami. Lindor is batting .243 with 11 home runs and 52 RBIs. Likewise, he went 4 for 16 against Miami with six RBIs. 

The Mets will cover the spread if Walker can deliver another quality outing. Likewise, New York needs its bats to get to Sandy Alcantara early to avoid letting him get in a groove. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen so forcing Alcantara out of the game could yield great dividends for the Mets. 

Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

The Marlins are a fourth-place team but have a potential Cy-Young contender on their team. Alcantara is everything the Marlins hoped he would be when they drafted him. He is 7-2 with a 1.72 ERA. Alcantara tossed eight innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on six hits against the Mets. He has been impressive, allowing two runs or fewer in nine straight starts. Additionally, Alcantara has 19 strikeouts over three starts. He dominated the Mets last week and will look to replicate the outing. 

The Marlins have a middle-of-the-pack offense. Miami ranks 13th in batting average, 17th in on-base percentage, 14th in runs scored, 13th in home runs, and 15th in slugging percentage. Garrett Cooper, Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are their primary weapons. Cooper went 4 for 12 in the series against the Mets last week, driving in one RBI. Neither Aguilar nor Sanchez played, and both will face New York for the first time in 2022. Chisholm went 2 for 12 with an RBI. Additionally, Soler went 3 for 11 with an RBI. 

The Marlins need these bats to get hot to give Alcantara some breathing room. Miami does not have a solid bullpen, as they rank 23rd in team ERA. Thus, the Marlins must figure out a way to get to Walker early and prevent their bullpen from having to protect a tight lead. The Marlins will cover the spread if Alcantara continues his dominance and the hitters come alive. Likewise, the Marlins need to put their bullpen in the best position possible. They are more trustworthy with a five-run lead than with a one or two-run lead. 

Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick

Both teams are throwing amazing pitchers on the hill. The Mets covered the spread in two of the four games. However, these pitchers can throw. Expect this to become a gritty low-scoring showdown. Predict the under and win. 

Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)