The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins will continue their series as the NL East rivals face off in South Florida on Saturday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mets-Marlins prediction and pick.
The Mets defeated the Marlins 5-3 on Friday night. New York started quickly when Francisco Lindor blasted a 99 MPH fastball over the center-field wall for a home run. It was the 12th home run in 2022 for Lindor and it put the Mets up 1-0. The Marlins tied it in the bottom half and it remained tied until the fifth inning. Then, Mark Canha slammed a 98 MPH fastball just over the tip of the wall in left field. It was his sixth home run in 2022, giving the Mets a 2-1 lead. Once again, the Marlins tied the game leaving the Mets their chance in the sixth. Lindor delivered with a bases-clearing double, driving in three runners to put the Mets up 5-2. They never surrendered the lead following.
Taijuan Walker pitched efficiently, allowing three earned runs on eight hits with five strikeouts through six innings. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara struggled, allowing five runs (four earned) through seven innings. The Mets are 46-26, leading the NL East. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 32-37 and now trail New York by 12.5 games in the division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Marlins odds:
MLB odds: Mets-Marlins Odds
Mets: -1.5 (+114)
Marlins: +1.5 (-137)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets will roll with Chris Bassitt on the hill. He is 5-5 with a 4.03 ERA in 2022. Bassitt went 6 1/3 innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits with nine strikeouts in his last outing. He has lasted at least six innings on four of his five previous starts. Additionally, he has struck out 32 batters over four starts. Bassitt also has allowed three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. The bullpen behind him is solid, but not spectacular. Mets' relievers rank 12th in bullpen ERA.
The offense is fantastic. Lindor has been a menace against the Marlins. He is batting .300 with three home runs and 11 RBIs in five games against the Marlins in 2022. Likewise, he is batting .267 with five home runs, 24 RBIs, and 15 runs scored in 27 career games against the Marlins. Lindor had five RBIs in last night's game. Alternatively, Pete Alonso has not fared as well. He is batting .167 with one home run and 5 RBIs in five games against the Marlins in 2022. Likewise, he is batting .218 with 17 home runs and 32 RBIs over 50 career games against Miami. Alonso will hit a home run or he will whiff completely.
The Mets will cover the spread if Bassitt can give them a great outing. Additionally, New York needs Lindor and Alonso to come through. The Mets thrive when their hitters are firing on all cylinders.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins already threw their best starter at the Mets and lost. Now, they will present one of their worst starting pitchers. Trevor Rogers is not having a good season, as he is 3-6 with a 5.83 ERA. He lasted five innings in his last outing, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits with seven strikeouts. The issue with Rogers is his inability to pitch deep into a game. He has thrown less than five innings in three of his last six starts. Additionally, he has walked 14 hitters over four starts. Rogers does not have a good bullpen, either. The Marlins are 23rd in bullpen ERA.
The offense is hit-or-miss. Jazz Chisholm is batting .267 with an RBI and four runs scored over six games against the Mets. Likewise, he is batting .253 with two home runs, eight RBIs, and 14 runs scored over 23 career games against the Mets. Jesus Sanchez made his first appearance against the Mets in 2022, going 1 for 2 with two walks. Jorge Soler has not been good against the Mets, either. He is batting .250 with two RBIs over four games against New York. Also, he is batting .238 with one home run, four RBIs, and four runs scored over 12 career games against the Mets.
The Marlins will cover the spread if Rogers can pitch a good game. Additionally, Miami needs Chisholm, Sanchez, and Soler to produce.
Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick
The Mets somehow owned Alcantara yesterday and he is a stud on the mound. The Mets will score some runs, but will they hold the Marlins' offense down? Both teams likely score some runs, and the over/under is incredibly low. Expect this game to go into the bullpens earlier than anticipated. Both teams will score some runs today.
Final Mets-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Over: 7.5 (-105)
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