The New York Mets will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a classic rivalry matchup on Thursday evening. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Mets have had an outstanding start to the season. New York is currently 18-9, a record that has them at the top of the NL East. First baseman Pete Alonso has been fantastic, and the entire pitching rotation has played great baseball. The same can't be said for the Phillies. Philadelphia is 11-14, largely because of a struggling pitching staff. This contest will open an important four-game series for both squads, so it should be an entertaining affair. Let's get straight into the pick.
Here are the Mets-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-140)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York will send out starting pitcher Taijuan Walker here. Walker is a notoriously inconsistent player, but he's started off the season remarkably well. He's started two games, holding his opponents scoreless over seven innings of play. It helps that both of those starts came against the Phillies. When Walker faced Philadelphia on April 30th, he allowed only two hits over five innings. It's clear that he's comfortable facing this lineup, and there's no reason that should change in this contest.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia's ace, will pitch for the Phillies in this game. Normally, Nola is an intimidating man to face. However, the Mets' lineup has had remarkable success against him. Almost every single starter in New York owns a batting average of .250 or higher against Nola, including Alonso, who's hitting .353 over 34 at-bats against Philadelphia's prized arm. In his last two games against the Mets, Nola pitched a combined nine innings and gave up six runs. It's certainly possible another bad outing is in store here.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
While Walker did pitch well against the Phillies earlier in the season, the Philadelphia lineup still has an advantage over him. Most of the hitters on the Phillies own a career batting average of .250 or higher against Walker. Walker's inconsistency will also surface eventually. The righty posted a 4.47 ERA over the course of last season, and it's likely that this year goes a similar way for him. He won't be able to play elite baseball for the rest of the year, and a Phillies lineup that has a history of success against Walker is a good candidate to deal him his first rough outing.
Home-field advantage will play a big part in this game. Philadelphia has been slightly better offensively in Citizens Bank Park, earning a better batting average over a bigger sample size there. Nola has also been a much better pitcher on his home field, as he's allowed a .302 batting average to hitters on the road compared to a .145 average when at home. It's clear that the Phillies are better when they play in front of their home fans, and that should help them here.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Neither side of the spread is particularly appealing here. Instead, the over is the best pick on the board. Both lineups have had success against the starting pitchers, and Walker is bound to end his hot streak eventually.
Final Mets-Phillies Pick: Over: 8.5 (-105)
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