The New York Mets finish their three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds in an afternoon affair. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Reds prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
Last night it was Brandon Nimmo with three hits, Pete Alonso hitting his major league-leading 13th home run, and Justin Verlander pitching a gem to get the Mets the win. Verlander went seven innings, giving up just two hits, two walks, and a run in the game. He got his first win as a member of the Mets, and with that because the 21st pitcher to get a win against all 30 teams in the majors. For the Mets, it was just their fourth win in their last 12 games, as they sit tied with Philadelphia for third in the NL East, and a half-game back of Miami. There is still a lot of work to be done if the Mets want to make a playoff run, and first needs to be beating the Reds for a second time.
Here are the Mets-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Reds Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (-132)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (+110)
Over: 10 (-115)
Under: 10 (-105)
How To Watch Mets vs. Reds
TV: SNY/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 12:35 PM ET/ 9:35 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Winning often starts with Pete Alonso. He now has 13 home runs on the season, which is first in the majors. He also has 31 RBIs which is 5th in the bigs. Today, Alonso will face right-handed pitcher Derek Law. That may be good for the power numbers, but not for his average. On the year, Alonso is hitting just .214 against right-handed pitching, but seven of his 13 homers have come against righties with 20 RBIs. Furthermore, in his last 15 games coming off of a Mets win, Alonso has hit safely in 13 of them. Brandon Nimmo could be the recipient of a run scored if he continues his play in front of Alonso. Nimmo has three hits last night and for the first time in his last five games, did not score a run.
On the mound for the Mets will be Kodai Senga. Senga has been great for the Mets so far this year, going 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA. His last time out, he went six innings, giving up just two hits and no runs. His only loss of the season was due to a lack of run support. He gave up two runs in five innings of work, but the Mets only scored one run for him and he took the loss. He is striking out over one batter per inning so far this year, and his work has been fantastic. Even if he just puts out an average performance for the year, it should still be enough for the Mets to cover.
It could be even better news if he can give seven innings of solid work. The bullpen has been solid on the year, led by Drew Smith, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, and David Robertson. Raley is currently on the IL, but the other three have been great. Drew Smith has seven holds on the year and has a 1.93 ERA in his 14 innings of work. He is striking 12.2 batters per nine innings as well. Ottavino has a slightly higher ERA due to a rough performance against the Tigers on May 3rd. Still, he has not given up a run in his last three outings and only one player even has a hit. Finally, David Robertson has been lights out. HJe has a .59 ERA with a .85 WHIP with seven saves.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
With the Mets sending Senga to the mound, it seems like this game could be over quickly considering how well he has pitched. That may not be the case though. Many of the Reds' top bats have done great against right-handed pitching this year. It starts with Jonathan India. India is hitting .305 on the reason with 17 RBIs. May has been a solid month for him, as he is hitting .367 with an OPS of 1.061 this month. Against right-handed pitching this year, he is hitting .340, with two home runs, 12 RBIs, and an OPS above his season average.
TJ Friedl is also enjoying a quality season. He is hitting .314 on the year, with 18 RBIs. Like India, his month has been great for Friedl. He is hitting .357 on the month with an OPS of 1.022. He is also hitting well against right-handed pitching. On the season, he is hitting .330 against the righties, with 16 RBIs and three home runs. Overall, seven of the nine starters with the most at-bats on the season are hitting better against right-handed pitching than left. Many of them are doing so by a wide margin. With the Reds' offense picking up lately, they may be able to continue that with the favorable matchup.
On the hill for the Reds will be Derek Law. It will be interesting to see how he performs in this game. In his career, Law has started just four games. All four of those games were in 2019 when he was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. He pitched under two innings in each of them and gave up runs in two of the four starts.
Final Mets-Reds Prediction & Pick
The Reds are not playing bad baseball, and the Mets are. The Reds are not expected to be a good team and win a lot of ball games. The Mets are expected to be a good team and good teams win these games more often than not. The question then becomes, are the Mets a good team? They have the starter on the mound who has been the best for them all year. The Mets are also facing an opener, and the Reds do not have a ton of amazing arms in the bullpen to eat up the rest of the innings. With that, expect Alonso to drive in a couple, and get the win.
Final Mets-Red Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (-132)
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