The New York Yankees are set to host the New York Mets Monday in the first matchup of a two-game set at Yankee Stadium. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Mets-Yankees prediction and pick we have laid out below.

The Yankees hold an eight-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East with a 74-48 record, but this doesn't illustrate just how bad they've been recently. They're tied for the worst record in all of baseball at 5-15 over their last 20 games. As a team that once appeared set to cruise to the best record in the American League, New York now must turn things around just to hold the division lead.

The Mets, meanwhile, are 14-6 over the last 20 games — the third-highest winning percentage in MLB during this span — and lead the Atlanta Braves by four games in the National League East at 79-44. They swept their Subway Series rival in their two games in Queens last month.

Here are the Mets-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mets-Yankees Odds

New York Mets: -1.5 (+106)

New York Yankees: +1.5 (-128)

Over: 7.5 (-102)

Under: 7.5 (-120)

Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread

Even at close to even money on a -1.5 run line, Mets backers should feel optimistic about the team's chances to cover based on their own recent performance, as well as that of their opponent. For one, of the Mets' 21 wins since the All-Star break, 18 have been by two or more runs. They've also posted a plus-43 run differential in the second half. Meanwhile, the Yankees' last six losses have been by at least two runs, in addition to having a minus-15 run differential since the break.

The Mets also hold a significant advantage in terms of starting pitching, with three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer scheduled to take the mound. Scherzer currently has the fourth-best Cy Young odds in the National League, posting a 9-2 record with a career-low 2.15 ERA and .206 opponent batting average in 2021. He also dominated the Yankees in his only game against them this season, striking out six while allowing just five hits in seven shutout innings.

Yankees starter Domingo Germán doesn't inspire a ton of optimism with his performance this year. In six starts, he has gone 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and career worsts in opponent batting average (.274) and WHIP (1.41). He gave up five hits, two earned runs and two walks in 4 2/3 innings against the Mets last month, and allowed three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his last outing.

Despite the Yankees being more productive at the plate for the season, the Mets have been significantly better on offense since the All-Star break, outscoring their rival 153-116 while playing the same amount of games. They rank in the top five in MLB in OPS, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, batting average, runs scored, doubles and triples during this stretch. They also have the second-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, which bodes with Germán slated to get the start for the Yankees.

Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread

Betting on the Yankees at this point is essentially wishful thinking that you'll pick the right game for them to break out of their slump and get back to being one of the best teams in baseball. However, despite all of their troubles over the past two months, they still lead the American League in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS over the course of the season. Most of the Yankees' struggles have also been on the road, where they are just three games above .500. They are 43-20 at Yankee Stadium this year, with their 43 home wins being tied for the most in MLB.

Regardless of his struggles in his most recent outing, Germán has displayed progress this month, posting a 3.05 ERA in August. During his first three starts of the month, he allowed only four earned runs in 16 innings. The success of the Yankees' relief staff, which leads MLB with a 3.01 bullpen ERA, is another reason to feel confident despite the Mets holding a clear edge in the starting pitching department.

Final Mets-Yankees Prediction & Pick

Even with a 4-2 win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, the Yankees have still only scored more than three runs just twice in their last 12 games. The Mets, by comparison, have scored six or more runs six times during this stretch. Given that they'll send one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball to the mound, combined with the Yankees' recent offensive futility, taking the Mets at plus money on the run line seems to be the play here.

Final Mets-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (+106)