The Washington Nationals take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Nationals Cardinals prediction and pick.
Cory Abbott goes to the mound for the Nationals, while Jordan Montgomery gets the ball for the Cardinals.
Cory Abbott has made 10 appearances for the Nationals this season, six of them being in relief. Those six appearances went no longer than two innings. Abbott first performed for the Nationals in June, making only one appearance that month. He made two appearances in July. On Aug. 2, he made his first start of the season, going five innings and not allowing a single run to the New York Mets. In a four-start sequence from Aug. 2-17, he gave up 12 runs in 18 2/3 innings, which when viewed as a collective stat line is not very good. However, in one of those four starts, he was crushed for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. In the other 15 innings he pitched in those four starts, he gave up a total of only five runs. That's not bad. That one disastrous outing against the Phillies is his only horrible game this season. He had a mediocre outing against the Padres in which he allowed three runs in four innings.
Abbott made two brief appearances in early September against the Mets before getting this start against the Cardinals. He pitched one scoreless inning apiece on Sept. 2 and 4.
Jordan Montgomery has been tremendous for the Cardinals since coming over from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline. Montgomery has an ERA of under 1.70 for the Cards in six starts with the team. He had one bad outing on Aug. 27 in which the Braves tagged him for five runs in five innings. In his other five starts, he has been close to untouchable: 25 2/3 innings, one run allowed, five walks, 28 strikeouts. That's ridiculous. Montgomery has helped fuel a St. Louis surge in August and early September. The Cardinals are in complete control of the National League Central race, headed for a home-field wild card playoff series this year.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Nationals-Cardinals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Cardinals Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+115)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (-138)
Over: 7.5 (-120)
Under: 7.5 (-102)
Why The Nationals Could Cover the Spread
The Nationals have gotten a lot of good pitching recently. Anibal Sanchez and other members of their starting rotation have performed well, and more specifically, they have done well against teams with imposing batting orders such as the San Diego Padres, among other opponents. Cory Abbott might have a 4.39 ERA, but most of that ERA inflation comes from one terrible performance. When he goes to the mound in 2022, he usually does a good job. That is getting overlooked. Also consider the point that Jordan Montgomery can't keep this up. He is pitching so far above his career averages over the past five weeks that he is bound to have some regression to the mean. It's a natural, logical thing to expect.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
Jordan Montgomery is to be trusted. He delivers for the Cardinals and has been so regularly consistent that it's foolish to bet against him. Realize that his one bad outing since he came to St. Louis was against an Atlanta Braves team which is playing at a 120-win pace over its last 85 to 90 games. Against everyone else he is facing, Montgomery is dealing. That's really hard to bet against, and the Cardinals should be able to put up some good at-bats against Cory Abbott in this game.
Final Nationals-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
If Abbott versus Montgomery isn't a good game to bet on, nothing is. The Cardinals have a demonstrated advantage here.
Final Nationals-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals -1.5
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