The Washington Nationals will take on the New York Mets in the second of their three-game series on Saturday night in Queens. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Nationals-Mets prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Washington Nationals have been downright awful this season, with baseball's worst record at 45-87. Washington has officially been eliminated from playoff contention, although they had been unofficially eliminated before the season actually started.
New York has been one of the best and most exciting teams in the league, with an 85-48 record and first-place spot in the NL East. The final month-plus of the season is no time to coast for this club, as Atlanta is lurking in second place, just three games behind for the division crown.
Here are the Nationals-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+150)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-182)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Um, well, there are not many reasons why Washington could win this one. Patrick Corbin, a one-time big money-worthy starting pitcher, is tonight's starter. Corbin has had a rough season to put it nicely. Corbin has started 26 games, with a 5-17 record, 6.56 ERA, and just 113 strikeouts in 127.2 innings. Ouch. Batters have hit an impressive .325 against Corbin. If the opponent's numbers against Corbin were accumulated by one player, we would be talking about an All-Star caliber season. On the bright side, Corbin has walked just 7.4% of batters he has faced, a lower rate than the league average.
Washington's bullpen has been equally as bad, ranking 21st in bullpen ERA. Kyle Finnegan has been the best option, with a 3.00 ERA in 54 innings, registering eight saves. Carl Edwards has been equally as solid, with a 3.04 ERA in 50.1 innings. Erasmo Ramirez has pitched to a 2.99 ERA in 49 appearances (two starts), including a sparkling 2.42 ERA in his 47 relief appearances.
Washington's offense is depleted by the losses of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. No way around that fact. Lane Thomas leads the team with 14 home runs, adding 20 doubles. Veteran designated hitter Nelson Cruz has 10 home runs, 16 doubles, and a team-leading 64 RBI. Rookie Joey Menses has impressed in his 26 games, hitting .350 with seven home runs. Catcher Keibert Ruiz leads the team with 21 doubles, hitting .246, which inexplicably leads the team.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York will send one of the best in baseball to the mound in Max Scherzer. Scherzer, one of the greatest pitchers in Expos/Nationals history, has aged like a fine wine. In his age 38 season, Scherzer has gone 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA in 19 starts, striking out 148 in 122.2 innings. Scherzer still averages in the mid-90s with his fastball, which he throws about half the time. Scherzer only walks 4.6% of batters he faces, ranking in the 94th percentile in the league. However, the best of Scherzer's offerings is his slider. The whirly slider has held batters to a measly .174 batting average this season, accounting for 49 of Scherzer's 148 strikeouts.
New York's bullpen has been solid, ranking tenth in ERA with a 3.57 mark. Adam Ottavino has been fantastic, with a 2.01 ERA in 54 appearances, striking out 65 in 53.2 innings. Closer Edwin Diaz has been otherworldly, with a 1.52 ERA on the season, striking out 101 in just 53.1 innings, a 49% rate.
Offensively, New York is led by first baseman Pete Alonso, with 32 home runs and 106 RBI. Francisco Lindor has been great after a rocky 2021 season, hitting 21 home runs and 86 RBI, adding 15 stolen bases. Starling Marte, the biggest offseason acquisition on the offensive side, leads the team with 18 stolen bases, adding 24 doubles, 16 home runs, and five triples. Second baseman Jeff McNeil leads the team with a .319 batting average and 35 doubles, slugging .455. Brandon Nimmo has 27 doubles, six triples, and 12 home runs, with a .356 on-base percentage.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
Easy to pick in this one, do not overthink this.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (-182), over 7.5 (-104)
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