The Washington Nationals will square off against division-rival Philadelphia Phillies in the third of a four-game series Friday night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Nationals-Phillies prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Washington is stuck in a rough season, their 36-72 record is the worst in baseball. Washington is 23 games out of a playoff spot, and younger players are starting to get more and more chances.
Philadelphia, even without Bryce Harper, is red hot, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 58-48, good for the third Wild Card spot. The offensive firepower on this team is downright lethal.
Here are the Nationals-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Phillies Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+115)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (-138)
Over: 9 (-104)
Under: 9 (-115)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington has some interesting aspects on this team. Losing Juan Soto and Josh Bell may affect some viewership numbers, but younger players are getting chances now. Fans are getting their first looks at the possible future of the Nationals. Plus, Luke Voit can be a viable replacement for Bell if he returns to anywhere near his 2019 and 2020 forms. Lane Thomas has belted 10 home runs and 15 doubles, the only player with double-digit home runs. Nelson Cruz leads the team with 52 RBI, hitting .231 albeit with a .315 on-base percentage. Washington ranks 12th in the league with a .247 team batting average.
Patrick Corbin will take the mound in Philadelphia, looking to reconcile his struggles. Corbin is 4-15 with a 6.57 ERA, although he has a 5.74 expected ERA. This is the second straight year in a downward trend for Corbin, whose contract runs through 2024. Washington's bullpen is below-average, ranking 24th with a 4.21 ERA on the season. Flame-throwing closer Tanner Rainey, armed with a fastball that averages 97 mph, has been good in limited work, with a 3.30 ERA and 12 saves in 30 innings. At this point in a lost season, it is about finding building blocks for the future, and Rainey certainly looks like he can be a crucial piece.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Philadelphia is in the midst of a possible playoff run, playing some of their baseball recently. The impressive offense has been the story of the season, led by slugger Kyle Schwarber and his 34 home runs. Schwarber has hit the most home runs by a left-handed hitter since 2017. 21.5% of Schwarber's batted balls have resulted in barrels, the second-highest rate in the league. Rhys Hoskins has been a perfect second option in this lineup, with 22 home runs and a .342 on-base percentage. The power swings of these two have mitigated the loss of Bryce Harper, who may be back in time for a late push into the playoffs. Philadelphia has hit 139 home runs as a team, good for the fifth-highest mark in the league.
Tonight's starting pitcher will be Ranger Suarez, a left-hander with a 3.60 ERA in 18 starts. Suarez has been even better lately, with a 2.48 ERA in his last seven starts, going 3-2 in that span. Suarez is adept at limiting hard contact, as his hard hit percentage ranks in the 90th percentile in the league. Behind him is an improving bullpen that ranks 19th with a 4.05 ERA. The addition of David Robertson, who is having his best, and healthiest, a year since 2018 should inject some life into this group.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick
This should be a series for Philadelphia to get fat on.
Final Nationals-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia -1.5 (-138), over 9 (-104)
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