The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Baltimore Orioles on Monday in the first matchup of a three-game set at Rogers Centre. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Orioles-Blue Jays prediction and pick we have laid out below.

Today's matchup will feature two of the four American League East teams vying for a wild card spot. Toronto has the best record on any non-division leader in the American League at 61-52, but the Blue Jays are only 2 1/2 games ahead of the Orioles, who would be the first team left out of the postseason at 59-55 if the season ended today. Toronto is 3-7 over its last 10 games, while Baltimore has won six of its last 10 contests.

The Orioles lead the season series 4-2, splitting their first four games at Rogers Centre this year.

Here are the Orioles-Blue Jays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Orioles-Blue Jays Odds

Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-150)

Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+125)

Over: 9 (+100)

Under: 9 (-122)

Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread

While their record for the entirety of the season might not show it, few teams are playing better baseball than the Orioles at the moment. Even after losing three of its past four games, Baltimore's 19-11 record over its last 30 contests is tied for the best in the American League during this span. A rocky start to the year is the only thing currently keeping the Orioles out of a playoff spot, but they've rebounded nicely to become arguably the biggest surprise in the MLB, playing 15 games above .500 since June 10.

Starting pitching doesn't seem to be a strength on paper for either team, with both projected starters entering the game with ERAs above 5.00. However, relief pitching could be a different story. At 3.09, the Orioles have the third-best bullpen ERA in the MLB. The Blue Jays haven't been bad in this department either, but with their 3.86 bullpen ERA ranking 14th in the big leagues, Baltimore holds a clear statistical edge in a game that will feature two starters whose production has been pedestrian at best in 2022.

Toronto seems to hold an advantage in terms of overall team hitting, but there are a few bright spots for the Orioles at the plate. Outfielder Anthony Santander and catcher Adley Rutschman rank fifth and 12 in the MLB, respectively, in OPS over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, shortstop Jorge Mateo's 16 runs scored during this span are tied for the 14th-most in baseball.

Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread

While Toronto starter Yusei Kikuchi's 5.13 ERA is far from stellar, it's significantly lower than the 6.42 ERA that Baltimore's Kyle Bradish has posted during his rookie campaign. Adding to the optimism for Blue Jays backers is the fact that Bradish has given up 14 hits and eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays this season — with both outings occurring during the past two months. Toronto also leads the American League in OPS, slugging percentage, batting average and RBI against right-handed pitching this season.

The Blue Jays also seem to hold a notable edge at the plate. Third baseman Matt Chapman and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero rank third and ninth in the MLB, respectively, in OPS over the last 30 days, with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez also cracking the top 25 in this category. For all the Orioles' recent success, Toronto has been the better team on offense since the All-Star break — ranking in the top 10 and leading Baltimore in OPS, slugging percentage, batting average and runs scored during this stretch.

Another factor worth considering is the home and away results for each team. The Blue Jays are 35-23 at Rogers Centre this year, while the Orioles — who have the fourth-best home record in the American League at 33-21 — are just 26-34 away from Camden Yards.

Final Orioles-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick

Despite Bradish's struggles against the Blue Jays, it's worth noting that Kikuchi has been even worse when facing Baltimore. In two starts against the Orioles this season, he's allowed 11 hits and nine earned runs while only going a total of nine innings. Kikuchi has also posted a 5.72 ERA over his last seven outings, which is slightly higher than his counterpart. Baltimore's emergence over the last couple of months makes it tempting to take the Orioles at +134 on the money line. Upon further review, though, their record over their last 30 contests is only three games better than that of the Blue Jays. On the other hand, Toronto hasn't done enough as of late to justify a -1.5 run line bet, even at +125.

Given the inconsistency of both starting pitchers, taking the over seems to be the play here — as long as it doesn't rise above nine runs.

Final Orioles-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Over 9 (+100)