The Baltimore Orioles will face the Minnesota Twins on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Orioles-Twins prediction and pick.
The Orioles have quietly exceeded expectations this season. Baltimore was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but they've earned a respectable 35-42 record, a mark that becomes even more impressive when considering the fact that they play in the AL East. They wouldn't be all that far behind the Twins if they played in the AL Central, as Minnesota is only 43-36. That's one of the weakest first-place records in the league, so every game is huge for the Twins as they try to stretch their lead in the division. This contest is no exception. With that being said, let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Orioles-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Twins Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-106)
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (-113)
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
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Why The Orioles Could Cover the Spread
The Orioles will face Minnesota pitcher Joe Ryan in this game. Ryan has had a pretty solid season, but he's struggled to play well in his recent starts. Over his last seven starts, he's put up a 4.50 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He was just tagged for eight hits and three runs over five innings against the Colorado Rockies, and his last start against the Orioles wasn't particularly inspiring either. Ryan gave up two runs and six hits over 4.2 innings the last time he faced Baltimore, an outing that was essentially the definition of a mediocre performance. A similar showing is certainly possible here.
The Orioles have actually been the best team in the MLB at covering the spread. They own an insane 48-29 record against the spread on the year, with a 44-27 mark as underdogs. Meanwhile, the Twins have gone 36-43 ATS, one of the worst records in the league. Minnesota is also 23-29 against the spread when they enter the game as favorites. The Orioles have been covering in games like this one all season, while the Twins have not.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
Minnesota has the privilege of facing Baltimore starter Spenser Watkins in this game. Watkins has been absolutely terrible this season, posting a 5.14 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP on the season. Those are some of the worst numbers in the league, so the Twins should be licking their lips for this matchup. The last time Minnesota faced Watkins, they hammered him for seven hits, and three runs over 4.2 innings. This outing should have more of the same in store for both parties.
It helps that the Twins are playing at home here. Minnesota has been a better offensive team at home all season, earning themselves a higher batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS in Target Field. The Orioles' bullpen has also been much easier to hit on the road, as they earn worse stats across the board when they play away from home. This is shaping up to be a dream matchup for Minnesota.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick
It's impossible to trust the Orioles to have any success when Watkins is on the mound. He's far too volatile, and the Twins should capitalize on that. Lock in Minnesota to cover with ease here.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (-113)
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