The San Diego Padres will head to The Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in the first game of their three-game series. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Mets prediction and pick.
Both franchises have had a solid start to the season. The Mets are 30-24 for the year and sit in first place in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Padres are 37-27 this season and find themselves in third place of the competitive National League West.
This will be the second series between these two ball clubs, the first one ended in a 2-2 split, and both teams will look to settle things in the games moving forward.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Mets odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mets Odds
San Diego Padres +1.5 (-155)
New York Mets -1.5 (+135)
Over 5.5 Runs (-120)
Under 5.5 Runs (+100)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are 33-31 against the run line this season. However, when Jayce Tingler and his side are on the road, they have covered 58.6% of the time.
San Diego plans to give the former Cy Young award winner, Blake Snell, his fifth start of the season. The left-hander is currently 2-2 on the year, and according to covers.com, he limits his opponents to a .216 batting average.
In his last start, he had 10 strikeouts and allowed just one hit in seven innings pitched. That said, Snell has struggled on the road this season. In his two away starts this season, he has allowed 12 runs and three homers.
The San Diego Padres have struggled to hit the ball in their last few series, including one against the Mets. They have averaged just 2.3 runs in their last 10 games and have the second-worst slugging percentage in the league at 37.1%.
However, if there is one player to get the Padres back on track offensively, it will be Fernando Taits Jr. The 22-year-old has switched his batting style since recovering from his shoulder injury earlier in the season. He now follows through with both hands on the bat compared to just one, providing a more consistent alignment after his swing. Tatis Jr. had four hits and one home run in his previous series against the Mets.
Hall of Famer Jim Thome thinks that @tatis_jr is only going to get better and better.
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 11, 2021
The Padres will need an electric performance from Tatis Jr. and a great night from Blake Snell to move up in the National League West and come away with a victory against the Mets.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets have been excellent this season when playing in their home park, Citi Field, where they have a 15-5 record. However, the Mets struggle against the Run Line this season as they cover only 48.1% of the time. That number increases to 50% when they are the home team.
New York plans to start Jacob deGrom on the mound. He is 5-2 and has a remarkable 0.62 ERA this season. The right-hander’s impeccable start to the season has many analysts discussing if he can beat Bob Gibson’s single-season ERA record of 1.12. In his last start, which was also against the San Diego Padres, he had 11 strikeouts and allowed just 2 hits, which led to a 4-0 shutout victory.
Jacob deGrom’s ERA is down to 0.62.
He just keeps on rolling. pic.twitter.com/vtWqlp5Edy
— MLB (@MLB) June 6, 2021
The Mets have found their form from the batting box recently. They scored 14 runs in their last appearance and have tallied 21 homers in their last ten games.
Individually, Pete Alonso has had the biggest bat for the Mets this season. He leads the team with a .265 batting average and 10 home runs. He also has accumulated an 84.9% On-Base + Slugging rating (OPS) this season.
If deGrom can continue his greatness and the Mets can stay locked in offensively, they will have no issues against the Padres.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick
Expect hits to be hard to come by, as both teams will have former CY Young Award winners on the mound.
However, Jacob deGrom is currently pitching out of this world. He has already shut out of the Padres once this season and shows no signs of slowing down. In addition, Citi field is now allowing up to 33,875 fans in, so expect the Mets to have an even greater home-field advantage.
For those reasons, the New York Mets will defeat the San Diego Padres and continue to expand their lead in the National League East.
FINAL PADRES-METS PREDICTION & PICK: New York Mets ML (-163)