The San Diego Padres will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a classic NL West matchup. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
This four-game series is incredibly important for both of these teams. The Padres are currently 46-32, a record that would have them in first place in several divisions. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers and their 47-28 record have the Padres trailing first place by 2.5 games. Los Angeles already took the first game of this series, but San Diego can make the divisional race much closer with a victory tonight in this contest. A win for the Dodgers would mean a bigger cushion in the NL West, a huge advantage in a division that is one of the toughest in baseball. This game should be the most entertaining contest of the night, so let's get into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-137)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+114)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres will actually benefit from being on the road in this game. San Diego has gone 25-16 on the road and 21-16 at home, so they're actually more comfortable playing road games. They've been significantly better offensively on the road, earning a higher batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage when they play away from home. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are slightly worse at the plate in Dodger Stadium than they are anywhere else, as they earn worse batting statistics across the board.
Unsurprisingly, the Padres have been pretty solid at covering the spread this year. San Diego is 41-37 against the spread, with a fantastic 19-7 record ATS when they enter the game as underdogs. They've also covered in 28 out of 41 road games, making them the best team at covering the spread when they play in opposing stadiums. Overall, this doesn't look like a terrible spot to pick the Padres.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
The Dodgers are lucky enough to face San Diego starter Blake Snell in this contest. Snell is in the middle of an absolutely abysmal season, earning himself a 5.60 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP thus far. Those are some of the worst numbers in the MLB, and it's unlikely they improve against a Los Angeles lineup that ranks inside the top ten in baseball in nearly every single major batting statistic. Over his last two outings combined, Snell pitched just over ten innings and allowed a whopping 11 hits, six walks, and eight runs. The Dodgers should be able to keep his cold streak going in this game.
Los Angeles doesn't have the same problems on the mound as the Padres do here. The Dodgers will send starter Tony Gonsolin to the hill for this game. Gonsolin has been a pleasant surprise for LA, as he quickly established himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the MLB, earning a 1.58 ERA and a .85 WHIP. Those numbers get even better when Gonsolin pitches in Dodger Stadium, as his ERA at home is an insane .81. He also only allows a .118 batting average to opposing hitters when he plays at home. It's fair to expect a good outing from Gonsolin in this game.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
This is an easy pick. The Padres can't be trusted with Snell on the mound, and the Dodgers are deploying one of their best starters. Lock in Los Angeles here.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+114)
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