MLB odds: Padres vs. Dodgers prediction, odds, pick, and more – 9/28/2021
The Los Angeles Dodgers begin a must win series against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. As L.A. attempts to run down the Giants in the NL West, it’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 100-56 and is 52-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $326 on the moneyline.
San Diego currently stands at 78-78 and is 33-42 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $2,491 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
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San Diego Padres ML (+165)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-175)
Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
Even though the Padres season is effectively over, their fanbase would still get a kick out of preventing the Dodgers from winning yet another NL West title. Yu Darvish will take the mound looking to help accomplish that goal.
Darvish has been a bettors nightmare, alternating between being lights out and extremely hittable. He currently holds an ERA of 4.21 through 29 starts for San Diego.
While it can be scary to bet on a pitcher who runs hot and cold, Darvish’s history against the Dodgers is encouraging.
This L.A. lineup has been mostly unable to touch their former pitcher. The healthy bats in the L.A. lineup have a combined 95 at-bats against Darvish, and only 13 hits total. The only Dodger in the lineup with more than two hits against Darvish is Trea Turner.
On the other hand, both of the Padres big bats have seen some success against Walker Buehler, who’s on the mound for the Dodgers Tuesday night. Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined to go 12-39 with three homers and five RBI’s off the righty.
The Padres are catching Buehler in one of his worst months of the season. After a July and August where Buehler was nearly untouchable (1.61 ERA), he’s looked a shadow of himself in September (7.32 ERA).
After holding opponents to three earned runs or less in 26 of his first 27 starts, Buehler has allowed six earned runs to the Giants in just 3.0 innings and then five earned runs to the Rockies in 3.2 innings in the same month.
San Diego has scored five or more runs in five of their last seven appearances, and they’re primed to continue Buehler’s woes heading in to the postseason.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers will have a major advantage on the mound tonight as Buehler faces off with Darvish.
Darvish has easily been one of the most inconsistent pitchers of the year. Darvish has had 12 starts of one or less earned runs, and 12 starts of four or more earned runs. Only five of his starts have fallen in the average start category of five or six innings and two or three earned runs. Essentially, the Padres righty is either rocked by an opponent or shuts them down.
In the first half of the season, Darvish shut down the Dodgers three times, throwing 20 innings against them and only allowing three earned runs over the span. However, first half Darvish and second half Darvish have been different pitchers.
Darvish’s ERA in his first 15 starts was 2.50. He allowed 10 homers in that span and the Padres went 12-3 in his starts. In Darvish’s next 14 starts, his ERA ballooned to 6.35, he allowed 18 homers, and the Padres went 5-9 in those starts.
The Dodgers proved they were capable of getting to Darvish last time out, when they roughed him up for four runs over six innings. It’s likely we see a similar outing Tuesday night.
On the mound, L.A. badly needs a Buehler bounce back. Facing a Padres team that he has dominated this season might do the trick.
Buehler has faced the Padres four times this season, and the Dodgers won three of those starts. Over 26.2 innings, Buehler has only allowed six earned runs.
While Machado and Tatis sport fairly high averages against Buehler, the rest of the Friars have really struggled against him. There are seven Padres with 10 or more at-bats against Walker Buehler. Four of those batters are batting below .200 against the Dodgers ace.
The Cy Young candidate is too good to have this streak continue much longer. He’ll find his groove, and the Padres are a prime opponent to help him do just that.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Both of these starters, for all their ability, have looked shaky in their last appearances. Darvish has either been excellent or horrible, and betting on this game falls on which Darvish we think we’ll get. Judging by his recent outings against the Giants and the Dodgers, it’s likely he gives up at least three or four runs. Buehler will not escape this start unscathed either. By the time both starters exit the game, we should see six or seven runs on the board. I’m confident these lineups can get a few more against the bullpen. Play the over.
FINAL PADRES-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-110)