The Los Angeles Dodgers look to make it two in a row against the San Diego Padres at Dodgers Stadium. With only five regular-season games left for both teams, let's continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Dodgers prediction and pick.
Los Angeles currently stands at 101-56 and is 53-23 at home. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $274 on the moneyline.
San Diego currently stands at 78-79 and is 33-43 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $2,591 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Padres-Dodgers odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
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San Diego Padres ML (+253)
Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-285)
Over 8 Runs (-110)
Under 8 Runs (-110)
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
At this point in the season for the Padres, the only point of these games is to get their young players some quality time in the big leagues and potentially spoil a Dodgers run. Lefty Ryan Weathers will get a shot at both on Wednesday.
Weathers has made 29 appearances for the Padres this season, with 17 of those coming as starts. Through 91 2/3 innings, he holds a 5.01 ERA.
Weathers' season and history against the Dodgers is shockingly similar to Yu Darvish's path. Both came out the gates firing but slowed significantly in the second half, and they have a great track record against the Dodgers.
The southpaw has pitched 10 1/3 innings against the Dodgers this year and only allowed a single earned run. The Padres ended up splitting the two starts Weathers has made against them so far.
Lately, Weathers has looked excellent out of the bullpen. He has pitched 8 1/3 innings in relief in September and only allowed a single run. Considering the Dodgers' hitting woes against lefties, Weathers is primed to improve that record.
L.A.'s batting average, OBP, and BB/9 all decrease with a left-hander on the mound. Their K/9 and chase rate, however, rises. Considering the Dodgers have been cold at the plate for a few games now, it's not hard to see Weathers giving the Padres three or four quality innings.
The real problem for San Diego is the opposing pitcher: Max Scherzer.
Scherzer is the current Cy Young favorite, though he looked his most vulnerable in his last appearance. Scherzer allowed five earned runs (equalling as many as he had allowed in his previous nine Dodgers starts) against the Colorado Rockies.
Additionally, the Padres haven't looked too bad against Scherzer this year. Mad Max shut them down when he was with the Dodgers, but in his two starts against San Diego in a Nationals jersey, he allowed 11 runs over 10 2/3 innings.
You can never count on Scherzer to get shelled, but the Padres should at least have a better showing than when they were dominated two weeks ago.
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers badly need a wake-up call offensively as the postseason looms on the horizon. One of the best offensive teams in the league has scored more than four runs in only one of their last five games, but starting the game against Ryan Weathers could help them change that.
Weathers has been good as a reliever of late, but he has really struggled when asked to go three or more innings. In his last 10 appearances in which he completed at least three innings, Weathers has a shockingly high ERA of 7.87.
Most of this damage is coming from the home run, which is even better for the Dodgers. In his last 10 three-inning-plus stints, Weathers has allowed a homer in six of them and multiple homers in five.
The Dodgers have hit the fifth-most homers in the league, and they have guys who can take an opposing pitcher deep from top to bottom. If Weathers comes out flat, he won't last long.
The Dodgers' biggest advantage comes on the mound thanks to Max Scherzer. Scherzer has shut it down against nearly every opponent he has faced in a Dodgers uni, but he has reserved his best stuff for the Padres.
There's several reasons why the former Nationals ace has looked like he's set on decimating the Padres: Perhaps it's revenge for what they did to him before he was traded, perhaps it's showing them what they missed out on at the trade deadline, or it could just be straight adrenaline against a rival. Whatever it is, Scherzer has owned the Padres since coming to Los Angeles. He has not allowed a single earned run in 15 2/3 innings over two starts against them, all while striking out 19 and allowing just three hits.
It's hard to bet against Scherzer, period. He hasn't lost a game yet in Los Angeles. Against a team he has dominated, it makes it nearly impossible to put your cash on the Padres.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
When looking for an angle in this matchup, you have to consider the motivation behind the two squads. The Dodgers are doing everything they can to avoid the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals in Wild Card action. The Padres are ready to go on vacation. I'll back a motivated Max Scherzer over a team that has essentially nothing to play for nine out of 10 times. When you add in how these bats have looked against Scherzer in the last month, it makes betting on the Dodgers even more comfortable. I won't be playing the Dodgers -2.5 in case Weathers is better than expected and Scherzer allows a run or two, but I'll happily play the Dodgers run line and lay the chalk there.
FINAL PADRES-DODGERS PREDICTION & PICK: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -1.5 (-144)
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