The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will finish their three-game series in Miami on Wednesday. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Padres-Marlins prediction and pick we have laid out below.
San Diego has been the center of the baseball news cycle for the better part of three weeks now, between the trade deadline and Fernando Tatis, Jr. controversy. Still, at 65-54, San Diego is in the final Wild Card spot. With the Dodgers nearly uncatchable at this point, San Diego's only hope at the playoffs is the Wild Card.
Miami, after earning a playoff berth in 2020, has not had the same level of success since. With a 52-65 record, Miami is all but eliminated from playoff contention, and the rebuild that began in 2017 still seems to be ongoing. Key pieces of the farm system are beginning to make their way to Miami, exciting fans for the final two months of the season.
Here are the Padres-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Marlins Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+112)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-134)
Over: 7 (-106)
Under: 7 (-114)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego's roster is easily one of the best in baseball. Bad news is, they play in the same division as the Los Angeles Dodgers, the best team in baseball at the moment. Today, they will send one of their best to the mound in Mike Clevinger. Clevinger has returned from his arm issues, pitching to a 3.47 ERA in his 70 innings. Backing up Clevinger is a unique bullpen, with newly acquired Josh Hader waiting at the end of games. Tim Hill, who throws from a nearly submarine arm angle, has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in his 34.1 innings. Nabil Crismatt owns a 2.98 ERA in his 41 relief appearances. Overall, San Diego's bullpen has registered a 3.77 ERA in 387 innings.
Offensively, even with the loss of Tatis, Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado are a lethal duo. Soto has hit .319 in his 13 games as a Padre, while Machado has a .304 average and 21 home runs on the season. San Diego has launched 208 doubles, good for eighth in the league, and ranks fifth with 420 walks. Jurickson Profar has added 26 doubles and a .342 on-base percentage. Trent Grisham has rebounded from his slow start, hitting .256 in his last 15 games, and has hit 15 home runs on the season.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Miami has one of the best starting rotations in the league. This afternoon, Pablo Lopez will take the ball for Miami. Lopez is 7-5 with a 3.55 ERA in his 23 starts. Batters have swung and missed on 29.1% of Lopez's pitches, ranking in the 84th percentile. That rate is greatly buoyed by a dastardly changeup, which batters have hit just .192 against, whiffing on 37.5% of changeups thrown by Lopez. In terms of pure stuff, Lopez has elite stuff. Miami's bullpen has a 3.95 ERA, ranking 20th in the league. Steven Okert has pitched to a 2.61 ERA in his 41.1 innings, and Cole Susler has a 3.86 ERA. Rookie Huascar Brazoban has been great in his limited time, pitching to a 1.59 ERA in 11.1 innings, and striking out 16 batters.
Miami's lineup is squarely behind the pitching, but there are still some great pieces. The team decided to keep Jesus Aguilar, who leads the team with 15 home runs and 48 RBI. With Jazz Chisholm missing the majority of the season, the offensive burden has fallen on Aguilar, who has been up to the challenge. Jon Berti, despite possessing little to no power, has stolen 30 bases this season with a .268 batting average. As a team, Miami has stolen 100 bases, the highest total in the league.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick
Give the nod to San Diego's offense here.
Final Padres-Marlins Prediction & Pick: San Diego -1.5 (+112), under 7 (-114)
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