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The San Diego Padres and New York Mets are set for Game 2! It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Mets prediction and pick.
The Padres took Game 1 last night by the score of 4-1. Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer battled in a pitching duel and did you really expect anything else? Darvish, however, did win the duel for now as they could match up again in October. Eric Hosmer drilled a two-run blast to left-center field to put the Padres up 2-0 in the 4th inning. Trent Grisham added a homer after Scherzer left the game, and the Friars went on to win the game. The Padres improved to (53-42) on the year as the Mets fell to (58-36). It's clear these two teams are one of the best in the National League, so these next two games are very important for both squads.
Here are the Padres-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Mets Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-156)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+130)
Over: 7.5 (-114)
Under: 7.5 (-106)
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
It's “Bumpday” as Blake Snell says before every start. The young left-hander is back on the mound after a poor start back on July 14 against the Colorado Rockies. He allowed five earned runs in just 3.2 innings and walked a massive six batters. It's been a bumpy start for Snell in a Padres uniform. The location has been all over the place. He has yet to really dial in but does have some very good outings for the Padres in his two years in San Diego. Snell will face another tough offense tonight and will need to be on his game if the Padres want to have a chance of covering this spread. Snell is (1-5) with a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings this season.
Manny Machado has lowered his batting average to under .300 for the first time this season. The All-Star third baseman is really struggling since returning from his ankle injury. Whether they rushed his return or not, it's clear he does not look like the same batter from a majority of the first half. The good news is Jake Cronenworth and Luke Voit have stepped up over the last few weeks. The Padres understand they can't rely on their pitching to lead them to glory.
After all this time, Fernando Tatis Jr. is close to returning. An early August return to San Diego seems possible as the star shortstop doesn't feel any pain in his wrist. The offense can sure use his ability right about now.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Toeing the slab for the Mets is right-hander Chris Bassitt. The former Oakland Athletic is (7-6) with a 3.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 102 innings this season. He's got double the innings Snell has this year and is the biggest reason for them being the favorites at home. Bassitt pitched great in his last outing going six innings with six strikeouts and only allowing one run. However, the last time he faced the Padres he allowed seven runs off of eight hits in just 3.1 innings in San Diego. The good news is that Bassitt pitches better at Citi Field.
These two teams are alike in a lot of ways when it comes to pitching. Although the Mets have the edge offensively. Their team batting average (.251) is higher and they have more runs, hits, and home runs, and pretty much have the advantage in every offensive statistic. Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Edwardo Escobar, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor have all been on another level in 2022. If that core five can keep the train on the tracks then this team will see success in October. As for winning this game and covering the spread, they might not have to do anything if Snell can't find the zone.
The Mets traded for Daniel Vogelback Friday and then traded for catcher Michael Perez both from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Those two could be great depth for this contending team.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick
There is a lot to consider when picking this matchup. Snell has been all over the place and Bassitt really struggled against the Padres back in early June. I think the over is the best call on the board. Both teams should score enough runs to add up to eight with the current odds.
Final Padres-Mets Prediction & Pick: Over (-114)