Two struggling teams meet on Friday evening as the San Diego Padres take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Petco Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Padres prediction and pick.
San Diego currently stands at 67-56 and is 40-24 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $1,102 on the moneyline.
Philadelphia currently stands at 61-60 and is 25-35 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Phillies game so far this season, you’d be down $70 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Phillies-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Padres Odds
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Philadelphia Phillies ML (+190)
San Diego Padres ML (-200)
Over 9 Runs (-105)
Under 9 Runs (-115)
Why The Phillies Could Win This Game
In a battle of teams that are struggling to win games, the Phillies have been slightly more successful than the Padres of late. The Padres have are 5-8 in their last four series, all against sub .500 teams.The Phillies were swept by the Diamondbacks, but notched wins against playoff quality teams in the Reds and Dodgers in the series before.
Matt Moore takes the mound tonight for Philly looking to notch another big win. The lefty has been shaky all year, pitching to a 6.07 ERA in 10 starts and eight relief appearances.
However, Moore has the advantage of coming in off his best start of the year, and facing a Padres offense that is ice cold.
In his last outing, Moore no-hit an impressive Reds offense through six innings and struck out eight. He only threw 76 pitches and went one batter over the minimum.
If Moore could limit one of the best offenses, he could certainly handle one of the colder teams. In their last eight games, the Padres gave topped five runs only once. In the same span, they've scored two or less three times. Moore is no ace, but the Padres bats don't look scary right now.
At the plate, the Phillies get a shot at Blake Snell. Like Moore, Snell has failed to live up to expectations this season and holds a 4.80 ERA.
The Phillies have the personnel to take advantage of Snell's weakness this season: walks.
Snell has walked an astounding 63 batters in 101.1 innings, one of the worst walk rates in baseball for a starter. The Phillies draw the 10th most walks in baseball. If bats like Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto can show some patience at the plate, Philly is going to have traffic on the basepaths frequently.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
The Padres are fighting for their lives to retain the second NL Wild Card spot. In this struggle, seeing Matt Moore as your next matchup has to be a sight for sore eyes.
Moore has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year. In four of his ten starts, the lefty has allowed five or more earned runs. He hasn't pitched past six innings all year, and at this point in his career, is probably more of a long reliever.
Moore is absolutely crushed by teams with high OPS. He's pitched 34.0 innings against teams that rank top ten in OPS, and has allowed 26 earned runs against them and eight home runs. San Diego ranks 11th in OPS, so expect them to give Moore trouble early tonight.
Even if the lefty somehow navigates the Padres lineup with limited damage, A Phillies bullpen that has given up the fifth most home runs and holds the sixth highest WHIP will still have to pitch at least three innings. It would be a shock to see the Padres kept off the scoreboard in the latter innings.
The Padres counter Moore with their own lefty in Blake Snell. After an atrocious month of July, Snell has been lights out in August. In three starts, he holds a 1.59 ERA, and the Padres have won two of the three starts.
Snell has found his putaway pitch, striking out 25 batters in just 17.0 innings in the span. This is bad news for the Phillies, who rank in the top half of the league in strikeouts per game and is bottom ten in both batted balls and barrel percentage as a team.
If Snell gets rolling, we could see the K's start to pile up against a Phillies team that has struck out 35 times in their last five games.
Even if Snell's appearance is shortened, the Padres bullpen can pick up where he leaves off. The Friars bullpen has the lowest ERA in the MLB, and has struck out the third most batters.
If this game is even relatively close in the late innings, the Padres have a massive upper hand.
Final Phillies-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Padres might be cold, but they're not “make Matt Moore look like an ace” cold. If there's a pitcher that gets the Padres out of their slump, it's Moore. San Diego is too good of a team to go on a slump this long, and it should break tonight. Back the Padres to shell Moore and get their first win in what feels like weeks against a subpar Phillies pitching staff.
FINAL PHILLIES-PADRES PREDICTION: SAN DIEGO PADRES -1.5 (-110)
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