The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves meet for the second time in as many days in a matchup that pits two of the better teams in the National League. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Phillies-Braves prediction and pick will be revealed.
The Phillies were in clear control before the eighth inning happened, as the bullpen imploded by surrendering six runs that ultimately did Philly in on their way to a series-opening 7-2 defeat. Regardless, Philadelphia still sits at 80-64 and has still won six of eight games despite dropping two in a row. Getting the nod for game two of this series will be RHP Aaron Nola, who is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA.
After being shut down by Phillies pitching for a majority of the game, the Braves offense came alive in large part due to superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr, who helped get the party started with a towering two-run shot and never looked back. Fresh off of holding the Phillies to only two runs on six hits, Atlanta is feeling confident with their pitching staff and will entrust right-handed hurler and veteran Jake Odorizzi to get another win. In 18 games started on the season, Odorizzi is an even 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA.
Here are the Phillies-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Braves Odds
Philadelphia Braves: -1.5 (+146)
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Without a doubt, Friday evening's highly anticipated NL East battle with the Braves surely ended on a sour note. Now, Philadelphia only leads the Padres for the second Wild Card spot by 1.5 games.
For starters, the Phillies could not facilitate enough offense to garner an important victory on the road. In order to right their wrongs and cover the spread against Atlanta, the Phillies cannot afford leaving six men on base like they did on Friday. Not to mention, but the Phillies also went 0-3 with RISP, and while they didn't have a ton of opportunities to drive guys in for runs, Philadelphia surely needs to wreak more havoc on the base paths.
Pitching-wise, the Phillies have what it takes to overwhelm even a hot-hitting team like the Braves. In fact, this is where Philadelphia might have the biggest advantage on Saturday. With Nola on the rubber, the Phillies should have an excellent chance to cover the spread. In his career, Nola has been electric versus Atlanta with a 14-9 record to go along with a 3.43 ERA in a whopping 28 career starts. Simply put, this will be Philly's ticket to a triumphant spread-covering victory.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Don't look now, but this Braves team just reminded all of America how quickly they can strike when given a chance. The World Series champs from a year ago certainly looked like they were on their way to their fifth loss in six overall matchups, but the Braves' offense flipped a switch and inflicted a lethal dosage of damage during the eighth inning of a divisional game with major postseason implications on the line.
As a whole, Atlanta ranks third in baseball in total runs scored and does most of their heavy lifting in the slugging percentage department, as their .444 mark is second only to the Dodgers in the entire league. With that being said, the Braves will make an opposing pitcher pay by taking mistakes thrown over the plate in the gaps of the outfield and even over the fence. While this was on full display last night, it has been third-baseman Austin Riley who has taken advantage of pitchers this season with a club-leading 36 long-balls to lead a loaded Braves offense. Expect more of the same from the 25-year-old slugger who grew up in Memphis, Tennessee.
While Odorizzi has scuffled against the Braves in his two career starts with an 0-1 record to go along with an extremely lofty 9.53 ERA, the Braves cannot afford him to continue his struggles. In fact, Odorizzi has surrendered a home run in every start dating back to an August 6th outing versus the Mets. If Odorizzi can snap out of the funk that he is in, then the Braves should have a tremendous chance to put the Phillies in their place by covering the spread.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick
At first glance, the Braves are gonna need to bring the sticks with Odorizzi's shakiness from the bump. With Philly not happy with how things played out yesterday, expect the Phillies to come out and make a statement out on the road to kick off their weekend.
Final Phillies-Braves Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+146)
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