A three-game series between two of the hottest offensive teams in baseball is set to kick off on Monday night. The Boston Red Sox will make the cross country trip to California to take on the Los Angeles Angels in a matchup of two of the MLB's best offenses. The Angels' playoff hopes are fading fast, so they need to stay hot and beat the Red Sox, who lead the AL East comfortably. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Angels prediction and pick.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Angels Odds
Boston Red Sox ML (-122)
Los Angeles Angels ML (+112)
Over 10 runs (-110)
Under 10 runs (-110)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston has been one of the best teams in MLB this season, in large part due to offense. The Red Sox rank in the top 10 in home runs hit and OBP, while ranking third in batting average. They've scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. The Red Sox have also won eight of their last 10, mainly off the strength of their offense.
The Angels will be pitching a bullpen game, starting off with reliever Jose Suarez. He owns an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 1.10, two very good numbers. However, the Red Sox do have a couple advantages over him. Boston is much better offensively when facing left-handed pitching, sporting a higher team batting average and OBP against lefties. Suarez also struggles with his control, allowing more walks than normal.
Suarez has been great coming out of the bullpen and has shown the ability to go multiple innings, but it's likely that the Los Angeles bullpen pitches the majority of this game. The other relief arms out of the bullpen haven't been nearly as good as Suarez, with most of the relievers owning ERAs above 3.50. The Red Sox should be able to put up some late runs against a cast of pitchers that has struggled for most of the year.
Why The Angels Could Cover The Spread
The Angels will make this game close because of their offense. The lineup has scored more than four runs in five of the last six games for Los Angeles, powered by DH/pitcher Shohei Ohtani's incredible play. I expect the Angels' offensive onslaught to continue against the Sox, as they get to face Boston starter Martin Perez.
When you look at Perez's season stats, you may not think things are so bad. But Perez's last seven starts have all been rough outings, as he owns an ERA of 4.80 and a 1.60 WHIP in that span. It doesn't help Boston that the Angels are slightly better against left-handed pitching as opposed to righties, hitting a third of their homers against lefties despite having not even half the amount of at-bats against lefties than they do righties. It seems likely that Los Angeles can continue its hot offensive play against Perez.
There are also good reasons to believe in the Angels' pitching staff in this game. The Red Sox are significantly worse offensively when they play on the road, with their team batting average dropping from .274 t0 .244. Boston also has far less RBI when playing away from home despite playing an equal number of home and away games.
Final Red Sox-Angels Prediction & Pick
With both of these teams coming into this game on such hot streaks, particularly at the plate, I have to take the over. Neither squad is sending out a great pitcher to start, and the fact that the Angels are pitching a bullpen game is very enticing. I expect a close game filled with fireworks from two of baseball's best offenses.
FINAL PICK: Over 10 runs (-110)
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