The Boston Red Sox take on the Kansas City Royals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Red Sox Royals prediction and pick.
Nick Pivetta goes to the mound for the Red Sox, while Kris Bubic gets the starting assignment for the Royals.
Nick Pivetta has a 4.47 ERA. For context here, do note that he had a 3.23 ERA for the season at the end of June. He got torn to pieces in July, giving up at least four runs in four different starts and at least six runs in three different starts. He hasn't slightly regressed; he has cratered. Going up against the light-hitting Royals is a central test of whether he can regain stability and rhythm and become a reasonably effective starter. No one is expecting Pivetta to become a dominant pitcher, but he has to be serviceable and respectable in order for Boston to win the third wild card berth in the American League. Over the past month, Pivetta has not been that kind of pitcher. This is a very urgent moment for Pivetta's season.
Kris Bubic has a 5.45 ERA. That's a bad ERA by any measurement. However, Bubic is pitching better, and more precisely, his improvement is steady and consistent. Bubic's ERA for the season was 9.33 on June 4. It was 7.06 on July 2. It is now 5.45 at the beginning of August. That's considerable progress for a pitcher who stumbled out of the gate and looked horrible. His ERA has been going down over the past two months. Bubic has allowed more than three earned runs in only one of his last nine starts, and that was back on June 27. He pitched well in his most recent start last Friday against the New York Yankees, giving up three runs on only four hits in six innings. The three runs came from two homers. If Bubic keeps the ball in the park, he does well these days.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Royals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Royals Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+114)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-137)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
The Royals have lost seven of their last nine games. The Royals hit .195 in that nine-game sequence. They averaged 2.2 runs per game. They were shut out three times in that span. Boston, meanwhile, has won three of four. The Red Sox went into Houston and took two of three game from the Astros. They are hanging in the race for the American League's third and final wild card berth. They know they will play a lot of games down the stretch against the very tough American League East. That's what makes this series so hugely important for Boston. Being able to come into Kansas City and sweep the Royals in a four-game series would give the Red Sox a massive boost. Conversely, splitting or (worse) losing three of four in this series would be like bogeying a par-five hole in a major tournament. It's a very important moment for the Red Sox, and that urgency — which we see from a lot of teams in August and September — should lift them above the Royals.
Why The Royals Could Cover the Spread
Nick Pivetta has a 9.38 ERA in his last five starts, allowing a .371 batting average. Pivetta pitched to a 1.95 ERA and a .184 opposing batting average in his previous 11 starts. Pivetta has to prove himself before anyone should bet on him (or more precisely, his team) to win a game. Salvador Perez is back in the Kansas City lineup and has been hitting tape-measure home runs since his return to the field. He can give the Royals' offense some juice against Boston and a vulnerable pitcher who is ripe for the taking.
Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick
If you know what will happen here, you're smarter than we are. Nick Pivetta is a bad pitcher, and the Royals are a bad team. That's not the kind of game to bet on. If you do insist on a pick, lean to Boston, but again, this is a stay-away situation if we're being honest.
Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5
Follow Us
Subscribe