The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees will face off in the last game of a three-game series on Wednesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Yankees prediction and pick.
This series is incredibly important to both of these teams. The Red Sox held first place in the AL East, but a recent string of losses at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays has dropped Boston to second in the division, tied with the Yankees. New York has been on a tear recently, riding their deadline additions to plenty of victories. They've successfully closed the gap on the wild card spot, but now the division title is within range. This crucial series finale could give the Yankees a leg up on Boston in this three-team division race.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Wednesday's game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Yankees Odds
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Boston Red Sox ML (+107)
New York Yankees ML (-117)
Over 10 runs (-115)
Under 10 runs (-105)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox are lucky enough to be facing Yankees pitcher Andrew Heaney in this one, giving them a pretty solid chance of a win automatically. Heaney has been terrible this season, pitching to the tune of a 5.78 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP.
Those aren't great numbers, but Heaney's advanced stats paint an even worse picture for the lefty. He allows a barrel percentage of 10.1% and a hard hit percentage of 42.7%. Both numbers are poor, and they shouldn't hold up against a Boston team that has a lineup that excels in both categories. Heaney should be giving up plenty of hard hit balls throughout this game, and the Red Sox will capitalize on that.
Boston has a couple more statistical edges over Heaney in this one. The Red Sox are a much better offense when they play a left-handed pitcher, seeing improvements in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage against southpaws. Heaney surprisingly struggles when he plays at home, as his ERA, WHIP, and opponent's batting average all skyrocket whenever Heaney pitches on his home turf. The Red Sox won't have any trouble teeing off on Heaney, and they should see the New York bullpen fairly early on Wednesday.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees don't exactly have to face an intimidating pitcher either. Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Red Sox on Wednesday for this crucial series finale. Pivetta has been surprisingly good lately, but the Yankees have a couple of key advantages over the righty.
Pivetta struggles with his control at times, posting a walk rate of 10%. The Yankees have drawn the most walks in baseball and rank ninth in OBP in the league, so they should be able to get runners on the bases somewhat easily. Pivetta also allows a hard hit percentage of 39.8%, which is a little bit high. New York has seven hitters who own a hard hit percentage of 43.2% or higher. Overall, this rebuilt Yankees squad is a poor matchup for Pivetta.
Helping the Yankees is the fact that they've been on a tear at the plate lately. Over the last seven days, New York has seen a big jump in their team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Slowing this lineup down is a tough task, and Pivetta should try and fail.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The Red Sox have too big of a pitching advantage to pick against them, especially when they come into this game as underdogs. Betting on the Yankees is essentially betting on them to put up a huge number of runs, as there's very little chance Heaney actually pitches well. Take the Red Sox as underdogs and lock it in.
FINAL PICK: Boston Red Sox ML (+107)
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