The Cincinnati Reds ruined Opening Day for the World Series defending champion Atlanta Braves on Thursday. Atlanta ace Max Fried got lit up, allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings, on eight hits with a walk and five strikeouts. The Reds got a balanced attack, as seven of the nine starters earned at least one base hit. The bottom of Cincinnati's lineup did most of the damage, going 5-12 with four runs and five runs batted in. That includes Brandon Drury's three-run home run, essentially putting the game away as the Reds would steal the opener 6-3. Atlanta looks to rebound on Friday and even the series. That leads to our continuation of our MLB odds series.
On Friday, the Braves send their longtime veteran Charlie Morton to the rubber. Morton is coming off another stellar year in 2021, but suffered a broken leg on a come backer during the World Series. However, he is fully healed and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Reds counter with Reiver Sanmartin. Sanmartin has only pitched in two big league games in his career, going 2-0 last season.
So, let's dive right in with a Reds-Braves prediction and pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Dodgers-Rockies MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Reds-Braves Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+104)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-125)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
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Why the Braves Could Cover the Spread
The pitching matchup is about as big of a mismatch as you will generally see in baseball.
Morton is a savvy veteran who has only got better with age. Last season, the Braves starter went 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA and a career-low 1.04 WHIP. He looked even better in the post season until he broke his leg in the World Series. The Reds starter, Sanmartin, is very wet behind the ears. He got a late call up last season and pitched pretty well in his two career starts, winning both. But he still has only pitched in the major leagues twice.
Last season, the Reds were the fifth worst team in all of baseball covering the run lines. Cincinnati finished 72-90 against the run line, that's only 44.4 percent. The Braves however were 88-73 in covering the spread. They are a far more talented team with a much stronger pitcher on the hill, and have a track record of success. There is no shortage of reasons to take Atlanta here.
Why the Reds Could Cover the Spread
Cincinnati is feeling pretty good about themselves after being up on Max Fried on Opening Day. Despite not having a great 2021 season, the Reds were not all that bad on the road, winning just under half their road games. They brought that same type mentality to the ballpark on Thursday, and will look to do so again on Friday.
One thing working in Cincinnati's favor is the fact that none of the Braves hitters have ever seen Sanmartin before. It very well might take a time or two through the lineup for the Braves hitters to adjust to what they are seeing at the plate. That could allow the Reds some time to score some runs and stay in the game. The flip side of that is there is tons of tape on Morton. Even though only Mike Moustakas and Asdrubal Cabrera are the only Reds hitters to have faced Morton before, the whole team knows exactly what pitches he throws and the type of movement they have.
If the Reds can keep the game close early and the run total low, they have a chance to cover the line.
Final Reds-Braves Prediction & Pick
Beyond the obvious mismatch, there is an even more glaring reason all the money should and is flowing in on Atlanta. Look at the juice on the run line. Atlanta, despite giving a run and a half away, is still just better than even money. The vast majority of the time, the ball team favored on the run line will get at least one and a half to one. Not here. Conversely, the Reds, who are getting the run and a half, are only -125.
Again, generally in this spot, you are giving up a lot more than a quarter point of juice. After all, you are winning 1.5-0 when the game begins. Yet, Vegas is begging for some money to come in on Cincinnati. That's not going to happen here. The worst team in baseball beats the best team quite often, but the better team will get the win tonight. The game will be close through three innings, but once the Atlanta hitters go through the lineup a second time, they should expose the young Reds pitcher.
Final Reds-Braves prediction & pick: Braves -1.5 (+104)
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