The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will continue their three-game series with a Tuesday night matchup at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Reds-Pirates prediction and pick, laid out below.
Cincinnati has endured a brutal season, going 60-94 with eight games remaining, sitting in fourth place in the NL Central. The Reds have long been eliminated from playoff contention, unofficially when they started the season with six wins in thirty games.
Somehow, Pittsburgh has been even worse than Cincinnati, with their 57-97 record putting them in the cellar of the NL Central. Pittsburgh is in the middle of a slow and painful rebuilding process. Unfortunately for fans, the team should not fare much better in 2023.
Here are the Reds-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Pirates Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+168)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 7 (-106)
Under: 7 (-114)
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Rookie Hunter Greene, armed with a triple-digit fastball, will take the ball for Cincinnati in this one. Greene has started 21 games, going 4-13 with a 4.91 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 113.2 innings. The 23-year-old righty averages 99 mph on his fastball, but batters have managed a .276 batting average against the pitch. Some shaping issues have caused the pitch to become hittable despite the elite velocity. However, Greene's slider has baffled batters, holding opponents to a .176 batting average with 74 strikeouts in 199 at-bats.
Cincinnati's bullpen has been a disaster this season, and the suffering continued last night, as the group allowed seven runs in four innings of work. Buck Farmer, who did not pitch in last night's debacle, has a career-best 3.56 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 43 innings. Opponents are hitting .210 against the veteran, a number that would also be a career-best. Rookie closer Alexis Diaz has rivaled his brother Edwin's success, posting a 1.81 ERA with nine saves and 79 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. Diaz ranks in the 95th percentile with a 33.2 percent strikeout rate.
Kyle Farmer is the best option remaining for the offense, leading the team with 13 home runs, 74 RBI, 24 doubles, and a .253 batting average. Farmer has only swung and missed at 19.4 percent of the time, which ranks in the 80th percentile in the league. Aristides Aquino has belted ten home runs, in a three-way tie for second place amongst active Reds. Aquino also has set a career-high with 12 doubles this season. Jake Fraley and Jonathan India each have hit ten home runs, with India adding 15 doubles and two triples. TJ Friedl has only played in 66 games but has ten doubles, eight home runs, and seven stolen bases.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Mitch Keller will be tonight's starting pitcher for Pittsburgh. Keller has been a bright spot for a brutal Pirates team, going 5-12 with a 3.99 ERA, striking out 128 batters in 149 innings. Keller has been great at limiting home runs, surrendering just 13 in his 149 innings. Keller has produced ground balls at about a 50 percent rate, five percent above the league average rate. Chase De Jong turned in two shutout innings last night, bringing his season ERA to a 2.25 mark in 68 innings.
Closer David Bednar should ignite a bidding war in the offseason and has pitched to a 2.77 ERA with 17 saves and 66 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. Bednar's 33.3 percent strikeout rate is a career-high and ranks in the 96th percentile in the league.
Bryan Reynolds leads the team with 26 home runs, 60 RBI, and a .266 batting average. Reynolds has walked 53 times to lead the team, with a .266/.345/.465 slash line. Rookies Jack Suwinski and Oneil Cruz rank second and third in home runs, with 18 and 17 respectively. Cruz has stolen eight bases this season in just 80 games. Michael Chavis has jacked 14 home runs and 16 doubles this season. Ke'Bryan Hayes leads the team with 24 doubles and 18 stolen bases, hitting seven home runs and three triples. Ben Gamel is second on the team with 19 doubles, hitting eight home runs.
Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick
Put the faith in Hunter Greene, but expect a ton of offense in this one.
Final Reds-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 (+168), over 7 (-106)
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