The Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros will begin a three-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Royals-Astros prediction and pick.
The Royals enter this series having won six of their last seven games, with three of those victories coming against these Astros. Despite this recent winning streak, Kansas City's playoff hopes are still nonexistent. The Royals are 14 games back of the last Wild Card spot, and there's almost no hope of catching up. The Astros, on the other hand, have nearly guaranteed themselves a playoff spot. They're holding first place in the AL West by 3.5 games, barely staying ahead of the Oakland Athletics. Houston would love to build its division lead with a couple of wins here, so stay tuned for plenty of competitive baseball.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Monday's game.
MLB Odds: Royals-Astros Odds
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Kansas City Royals +1 1/2 runs (+110)
Houston Astros -1 1/2 runs (-130)
Over 9 runs (-105)
Under 9 runs (-115)
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
If the Royals cover in this game, it will be because their offense comes alive against Astros starter Zack Grienke. There aren't many holes in Grienke's game, but there is one that the Royals will be looking to exploit in this matchup. The righty is actually a much worse pitcher when he's on the bump at home. His ERA skyrockets from 2.34 on the road to 4.58 at home. Grienke's opponents are also hitting a whopping .278 when they face him at Minute Maid Park. Those numbers should look very hittable to a scorching-hot Kansas City offense.
The Royals will look to pitcher Daniel Lynch to make the start in this game. Lynch has only started eight games, but none of those starts have been particularly inspiring. Luckily for Lynch, he has a couple statistics that go his way against the Astros. Houston is slightly worse offensively against right-handed pitching, as they see a slight drop in all of their batting stats against righties. The Astros are also slightly worse at the plate when they play at home. They aren't much, but these stats provide a slim hope that Lynch can pitch well.
Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston has just about every advantage in this matchup. Daniel Lynch is no match for this offense that has a legitimate case for being the best in baseball. The Astros rank inside the top three in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. It's extremely unlikely that a pitcher who owns a 5.12 ERA will be able to handle this offense. Houston should have an absolute field day hitting off Lynch.
It's also extremely unlikely that the Royals get to Grienke. The righty has faced Kansas City once this season, allowing only one run over six innings. Grienke also only allows a walk rate of 4.8%, meaning that the Royals will have to earn their baserunners. Kansas City will have to score by stringing hits together or a couple of home runs, neither of which is likely against a pitcher of Grienke's caliber. The Royals shouldn't score more than three runs in this contest.
Final Royals-Astros Prediction & Pick
It's impossible to pick the Royals here, even with the spread in play. The Astros have every advantage, and their elite pitching should lead them to a multi-run win. Lock in Houston and don't worry about the spread.
FINAL PICK: Houston Astros -1 1/2 (-130)
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