The Kansas City Royals take on the Chicago White Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Royals White Sox prediction and pick.
Brad Keller gets the starting assignment for the Royals, while Michael Kopech takes the ball for the White Sox.
Brad Keller has a 4.18 ERA. He started the season well with a 2.19 ERA in April. Then he regressed. In May and June, his ERA was over 5.15. In July, he bounced back with a 3.77 ERA for that particular month. However, two of his strong starts from July were against the Detroit Tigers, who have one of the worst offenses in baseball and have been consistently bad the whole year. Keller's two starts against the Tigers in July encompassed 13 innings pitched. Keller gave up a total of just one earned run in those two games. He allowed only eight hits and three walks to the Tigers. Does it matter that Keller feasted on weaker teams, or is it important that Keller bounced back after a rough two-month stretch in May and June? That is the big question you have to think about going into this game.
Michael Kopech has a 3.16 ERA, which is solid. However, he had a 1.92 ERA on June 12, which means that over the past month and a half, he has had some struggles. Let's be clear about those problems, however: Kopech had a bad four-game stretch from June 19-July 5 in which he was tagged for 16 earned runs in 21 innings. He allowed at least three earned runs in each of those games, and he pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in only one of those games.
In his last three starts, however, Kopech has been noticeably better: 15 2/3 innings pitched, four earned runs, one home run allowed. That's more like the pitcher the White Sox hope to have, though not nearly what Chicago really needs. Kopech can be better than this.
There are two things Kopech must improve on: stamina and control, which are related. Kopech drives up his pitch counts with lots of walks. Even in his last three starts, which have been solid, Kopech has walked 10 batters. He has walked 20 hitters in his last 31 2/3 innings. That is close to a six walks per nine innings rate, which is way too high.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Royals-White Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Royals-White Sox Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-146)
Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 9 (-106)
Under: 9 (-114)
Why The Royals Could Cover the Spread
The Royals lost three of four games to the Yankees over the weekend, but they easily could have won three of four. They two-hit the Yankees last Thursday but got shut out and lost, 1-0. They led the Yankees 5-3 going into the eighth inning on Friday but gave up eight runs in the bottom of the eighth. Salvador Perez, having just returned from a long injury layoff, mashed multiple homers in New York and is hitting like a beast.
Also, the White Sox continue to be mediocre. Yes, they're in the thick of the playoff race, but that's only because the Twins and Guardians can't pull away from them. Chicago narrowly won a weekend series against the A's, and the White Sox have not yet looked like the 2021 team which rolled to a division championship.
Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
After winning the weekend series against the A's, the White Sox have reason to be confident. They're just two games out in the American League Central. They're in the wild card chase, too. As bad as they have been through 100 games, everything is still in front of them. This team should be excited to go to the ballpark and compete for a playoff berth. Many would say that the Sox should still be seen as the favorites in the Central. They are a better team than the Royals, and they're likely to prove it.
Final Royals-White Sox Prediction & Pick
If you want to trust the White Sox, you're simultaneously being logical and foolish. On paper, of course the White Sox should blow out the Royals, but the White Sox have been failing to do what they should be doing for 100 games this season. Are they going to wake up? Maybe, but betting on it hasn't paid off. Stay away here, but lean White Sox if you absolutely insist on making a pick.
Final Royals-White Sox Prediction & Pick: White Sox -1.5
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