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MLB Odds: Tigers vs. Blue Jays prediction, odds and pick – 7/28/2022

Tigers Blue Jays prediction

The Detroit Tigers will cross the border to take on the Toronto Blue Jays today for the first matchup of a four-game series at Rogers Centre. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Tigers-Blue Jays prediction and pick we have laid out below.

The majority of the Detroit Tigers are merely auditioning for playoff contenders, including Toronto, as the trade deadline approaches. With a 40-59 record, Detroit is nowhere near playoff contention.

Toronto just missed out on the Andrew Benintendi sweepstakes, but still will look to add as they continue to hold onto a spot in the Wild Card race. Toronto is 54-44 on the season, second in the AL East.

Here are the Tigers-Blue Jays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Tigers-Blue Jays Odds

Detroit Tigers: +1.5 (-105)

Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (-114)

Over: 9.5 (-102)

Under: 9.5 (-120)

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Why The Tigers Could Cover The Spread

If you squint really, really hard, you can see a path to a better Tigers team. There are some star-potential players that have been having down years, namely Javier Baez (.218 average, 9 home runs). In conjunction with Baez’s down year, Detroit ranks dead last in home runs with 59, fourth to last in batting average, and near the bottom in almost every offensive category. Baez has two months to turn his season around and justify the huge contract, but Detroit has begun playing younger players. Riley Greene, the prized prospect, has debuted slowly, with a .237 average and two home runs in 34 games. There are glimmers of hope, including Miguel Cabrera hitting .287, albeit with only 13 extra-base hits.

Detroit will send Tyler Alexander to the mound in this one. Alexander is making his fifth start of the season, and the four previous ones have been awful, with an 8.76 ERA in 12.1 innings. Clearly, Alexander is a solid pitcher, with a 1.29 ERA out of the bullpen culminating in a 4.05 overall ERA. Some of Detroit’s strong bullpen may be playing for other teams soon, as trade candidates Michael Fulmer, Gregory Soto, Wily Peralta, and Andrew Chafin all have ERAs below 3. While all of them are still wearing Detroit uniforms, this bullpen can be relied upon and will be asked to fill some key innings in this one.

Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread

Toronto has flourished since they fired Charlie Montoyo, going 8-2 in the ten games since. Teams coming across the border have struggled to acclimate themselves, as Toronto owns an impressive 31-20 home record. Tonight’s starting pitcher is Yusei Kikuchi, who has not started a game since July 5. Kikuchi has struggled in his 16 previous starts, with a 5.12 ERA despite 10.25 K/9. Kikuchi’s control has waned, walking 5.7 per nine innings. Behind Kikuchi, Toronto’s main components of their bullpen have been brilliant. Jordan Romano, David Phelps, Yimi Garcia, and Tim Mayza all have ERAs below 3.

The Toronto offense is fearsome, ranking fifth in home runs, second in doubles, and first in batting average. Six Toronto hitters have eclipsed double-digit home runs, highlighted by Vlad Guerrero, Jr.’s 21 and George Springer’s 18. Spots 1-9 are strong, and there are no real holes in this everyday lineup. Quietly, young catcher Alejandro Kirk has flourished, with a .312 average and more walks (34) than strikeouts (31). Given Alexander’s struggles as a starter, Toronto could feasibly score a ton of runs in this one.

Final Tigers-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick

Given the advantage of playing at home and a potent lineup, give me Toronto in spite of Kikuchi’s struggles.

Final Tigers-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-114), over 9.5 (-102)