The Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians will begin a four-game series on Monday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Twins-Indians prediction and pick.
Neither of these teams have lived up to the expectations set for them coming into the season. The Twins were expected to be a wild card team at the very least, but they are currently 18 games below .500 and in last place in the AL Central. The Indians haven't been quite as bad as Minnesota, as they've managed to hang around the .500 mark for most of the year. Despite the solid record, Cleveland has almost no hope of reaching the postseason. Both teams are playing for pride here, but it should be an entertaining matchup nonetheless.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the odds for Monday's matchup.
MLB Odds: Twins-Indians Odds
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Minnesota Twins ML (-126)
Cleveland Indians ML (+116)
Over 9 runs (-125)
Under 9 runs (-105)
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota started off the season with one of the league's better offenses, and they have regressed to slightly above average over the course of the year. Slightly above average is still more than good enough when facing Indians pitcher Logan Allen, so the Twins should be excited about their matchup in this game.
Allen has only made nine starts this season, but he's been truly dreadful in every single one. He owns a 6.62 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP on the year, but those numbers have been even worse over his last seven starts. In that span, Allen's ERA skyrockets to 8.17 with his WHIP also seeing a slight jump. The last time Allen faced the Twins, he lasted just over an inning and gave up six runs. Minnesota's hitters should be licking their chops at the thought of facing Allen again.
Luckily for the Twins, they have a much better pitching situation than the Indians do in this one. Minnesota is set to send out pitcher Bailey Ober to make the start. Ober has been solid on the season, but his recent stretch of starts has been fantastic. Over his last seven appearances, the righty has earned a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Those are elite numbers, and they indicate a level of pitching that is more than good enough to deal with this poor Indians offense.
Why The Indians Could Cover The Spread
While Cleveland has struggled on offense throughout the season, they're actually on a bit of a hot streak right now. They've scored more than four runs in five of their last seven contests, with four of those games ending in victories. The Indians hit a whopping .261 in August, and they've earned a .275 batting average over the few games they've played in September. Cleveland is playing the best offensive baseball they have all year, which gives them a great shot of pulling the upset in this game.
Ober may seem like a bad matchup for the Indians, but there are a couple of numbers that show this is an even fight at the very least. Cleveland is a better offensive team when they play at home, earning a higher batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS when they play at Progressive Field. Ober has also allowed an expected slugging percentage of .432 and a hard-hit percentage of 42.9%. The Indians slugged for .447 in August, with that number staying at .440 in September. It's possible that Cleveland takes advantage of Ober's tendency to allow hard-hit balls to help put up plenty of runs in this game.
Final Twins-Indians Prediction & Pick
The Twins should win this game, but they aren't the best pick on the board. The over should cash comfortably, as it's almost a guarantee that Minnesota gets to Allen early and often. The Indians have been fantastic at the plate over the last month, so they should be able to contribute their fair share of runs. Take the over with confidence.
FINAL PICK: Over 9 runs (-125)
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