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The baseball world was shocked when the Arizona Diamondbacks made an improbable run to the World Series last October. It's not every year that an 84-win team makes the MLB playoffs, let alone wins a pennant. The D-backs defied the odds and came three wins shy of a championship. They're out to finish the job in 2024.
No team has a better record than Arizona since June, as the Diamondbacks have won nearly 65 percent of their games over the past three months. However, with only a three-game cushion in the National League Wild Card standings, the D-backs are no guarantee to clinch a playoff berth. Still, it would be surprising if they missed out on the postseason given how they've played this summer.
Arizona snuck under the radar last year but that isn’t the case in 2024. MLB fans know the key cogs on the D-backs roster and it would be foolish to sleep on them if they were to return to the playoffs.
The lack of offensive output was the reason the Diamondbacks faltered in the 2023 World Series. They were shut out in Game 5, the final game of the series, and were held to one run in a Game 3 loss. Arizona scored only one run before the eighth inning in the series' last three games.
This year the trends are reversed, at least in the regular season. The D-backs lead MLB in runs, on-base percentage and OPS while ranking second in batting average. Compare that to a pitching staff ranked in the bottom five in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and opponents batting average, it's easy to see where the problems lie for Arizona.
D-backs starting rotation reeling into September
Arizona's pitching struggles are frustrating because the Diamondbacks have such a talented crop of starters on paper. Zac Gallen is a perennial Cy Young Award candidate following consecutive top-five finishes. Merrill Kelly had a 3.33 ERA and averaged 189 innings and 182 strikeouts in 2022 and 2023. Jordan Montgomery was a key figure for the Texas Rangers in defeating the D-backs in the World Series.
Despite that, plus other talented young arms who played a role in Arizona's pennant run last year, the Snakes are struggling to get quality outings from their starters in the second half of the season.
Diamondbacks starters have a 5.15 ERA since August, the worst among teams with a winning record. Of the 30 games they've played, only eight of them ended with a starter offering a quality outing. Remarkably five of them came from the right arm of Ryne Nelson who had an ERA just below five at the All-Star break.
Gallen is flirting with that number across his last five starts, while Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt posted a 6.75 ERA in their last four starts, respectively. Montgomery's disastrous 2024 forced Arizona to put him in the bullpen for the time being, although that isn’t going too well either.
Then there's Eduardo Rodriguez, another promising free agent acquisition who has fallen well short of expectations. He finally made his season debut in August but has yet to toss six innings in a game. Opponents are hitting .275 off him through five starts.
The D-backs undoubtedly need the rotation to find their groove again. Gallen and Kelly figure to be shoo-ins to start in the playoffs, but questions remain outside of that. The bright side is Arizona has afforded itself options, but if at the very least a third starter doesn’t emerge, a quick exit could follow.
Can Arizona reach another Fall Classic?
There's no denying the talent on Arizona's roster. Even if baseball involves some luck, you need great players to reach the postseason and the World Series. With the current way they're playing though, it's hard to imagine the Diamondbacks participating in the final game of the 2024 MLB season.
As a member of the NL West, the D-backs are awarded multiple series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Although they're a combined 11-12 against those divisional foes this year, it's a valued experience against teams they might run into in the playoffs.
Arizona swept LA in the NLDS last year despite losing eight of 13 against the Dodgers in the regular season. The Dodgers fell to the Padres in the same round in 2022 even after outscoring San Diego by 62 runs and winning 14 of their 19 regular season meetings.
This is a long-winded way of saying that regular season numbers can mostly be thrown out the window once those MLB playoff lights shine. The Diamondbacks might not have as much star power on paper as the Dodgers, Phillies or Padres, but they’re not afraid of any other National League team.
The D-backs will want their pitching staff to show signs of improvement and growth before the MLB playoffs begin. A repeat run to the World Series might not be in the cards, but Arizona can’t be counted out.
