The Chicago Cubs are a really good team and a potential contender for the World Series. Still, the Cubs have struggled recently and have some flaws. The Cubs' fatal flaw is not a particular position or player, but rather something else. With the postseason around the corner, there is concern that this will cause a playoff collapse. Moreover, Chicago's World Series hopes are floundering.
Chicago currently has +1400 odds to win the World Series, according to FanDuel. Of course, they would need to get past top-tier teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies. Their division rival, the Milwaukee Brewers, is also a major threat. Also, if the playoffs began today, they would face the San Diego Padres in a best-of-3 NL Wild Card series. That is not exactly the easiest opponent.
This team doesn't have many weaknesses. On the contrary, the Cubs are top 15 in every significant category. So what is the Cubs' fatal flaw? It's not a particular position but a lack of depth. The major fatal flaw is the mounting injuries the Cubs are enduring.
Starting pitching depth is the Cubs' fatal flaw
The Cubs lost Justin Steele for the rest of the season in April. At the time, it was devastating, but it was one injury. Then, the nagging injuries began to rise. Jameson Taillon was pulled after five innings in his start against the Los Angeles Angels recently. At the moment, his return is unknown.
The organization knew that the starting pitching depth was not great back in July. Therefore, they had to make a deal. The Cubs traded for Michael Soroka with the hope that he could be a healthy arm. Then, Soroko sustained an injury. While the injuries to Taillon and Soroka don't appear to be serious, it does raise concerns as to whether this team can field a healthy rotation for the playoffs. For now, the healthiest members of the rotation are Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, and Shota Imanaga. That might work in a three-game series, but how will it go in a best-of-5 or best-of-7?
The Cubs could ideally attempt to replicate what the Dodgers did last season by employing a three-man rotation and a heavily utilized bullpen. However, that was more of an exception rather than the norm.
How the current rotation looks
The current iteration is sufficient to keep the Cubs afloat. Significantly, Boyd is 12-7 with a 2.94 ERA over 26 starts. Boyd has produced 16 quality starts. Meanwhile, Rea is 10-6 with a 4.30 ERA over 24 starts and 28 games overall. But he has had just six quality starts, displaying an inability to go long. Imanaga is 9-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 21 starts. Yet, he has produced just 11 quality starts.
Before his injury, Taillon was 9-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 19 outings, including 11 quality starts. Cade Horton has made 19 starts and is 9-4 with a 2.78 ERA. However, he does not go long either as he only has four quality starts. Ben Brown is 5-8 with a 5.98 ERA in 15 starts with just three quality outings.
The rotation, despite the nagging injuries, ranks 12th in the majors with a 3.93 ERA. But a good ERA does not tell the story. Instead, the starters and their inability to go long in games is more of an alarming story. Unless Taillon and Soroka can come back, it might become a major issue.
Why the lack of depth will lead to Cubs' demise
The Cubs have struggled with the lack of depth for months now. As a result, they have played second fiddle to the Brewers and have been unable to overtake them in the NL Central. Currently, the Brewers lead the Cubs by six games, and it means Chicago is more likely to make the playoffs as an NL Wild Card team instead of a division winner.
The rest of the schedule looks feasible, as the Cubs have a series with the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, and St. Louis Cardinals on the slate. Even if they play the stretch and make the playoffs as the first or second NL Wild Card team, the lack of starting depth could cause a Cubs playoff collapse.
The bullpen has been good, ranking eighth in team ERA. However, if the starters cannot stay healthy or last long in games, it will put a strain on them. The Cubs would be hard-pressed to take this pitching staff into a series with the Padres and succeed without issues. Assuming they can get past the NL Wild Card Round, a showdown with the Brewers could spell doom, unless the starting rotation gets healthy fast. As stated before, there are no major weaknesses on this team. But the lack of health in the rotation could cause an unfortunate Chicago playoff collapse and ruin a potential World Series run.
