After making a run to the postseason in 2025, the Cincinnati Reds are looking to return to the playoffs come 2026. Leading the charge will be Cincinnati's steadily improving pitching rotation.
Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer are all locked into rotation spots. All have shown flashes of brilliance and are expected to take another step forward come 2026. However, the fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs.
Battling for the role are a number of Reds prospects. But at the top of the list are Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder. Lowder currently ranks as the fifth-best prospect in the organization, via MLB Pipeline. Burns made his MLB debut in 2025 after going No. 2 overall in the 2024 MLB Draft.
Spring training will give manager Terry Francona and company their best opportunity to judge the competition. Burns and Lowder both understand what is at stake. When the Reds make their final decision though, the choice should be simple.
Burns must be Cincinnati's No. 5 starter entering Opening Day.
Chase Burns must win Reds' No. 5 job
The case against Lowder making the Opening Day rotation is out of the right-hander's control. He missed the entire 2025 season due to forearm and oblique injuries. Lowder is back healthy in spring training now, but that's a long layoff from facing major league competition.
To his credit, the right-hander was mighty impressive in his MLB debut. Over his first six starts in the majors, Lowder put up a 1.17 ERA and a 22/14 K/BB ratio. While his walk numbers are a bit up, the righty's ERA sure is tantalizing. If he's able to put up that kind of production, Cincinnati wants him in the lineup.
But the 2026 season is a far cry from 2024. Lowder may need more time to fully get back up to speed. The Reds also have the luxury of being patient with the top prospect, partially due to the presence of Burns. Cincinnati remains confident that Lowder will someday be a key piece of their rotation. But that day shouldn't come on Opening Day.
Instead, that job must go to Burns. The fellow right-hander posted a 4.57 ERA and a 67/16 K/BB ratio. His line is like the inverse of Lowder's, with a bloated ERA yet strong strikeout/walk numbers. Still, Burns is just getting acclimated to the league.
Now, he'll have a whole offseason to prepare for his role. The coaching staff already knows what to expect when Burns steps to the mound. More often than not, it is a pitch hitting the upper 90s. His velocity will continue to baffle hitters, making him a strong strikeout threat whenever he is on the mound.
Furthermore, Burns ended his first taste of major league action on a hot streak. Over his last seven starts, he didn't allow more than one earned run per game. His strikeout numbers took a bit of a hit, but Burns found his stride on the mound.
Now the Reds must give him a chance to put it all together. It didn't take long for Burns to get to the majors for good reason. If his run presentation streak matches his strikeout potential, Burns will be one of the scarier No. 5 pitchers in the league.
Throughout the season, there is a strong chance both Lowder and Burns will make starts for the Reds. But as Cincinnati crafts their Opening Day roster, Burns is the most logical choice.
