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It's been a tale of two seasons for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024. Sole owners of first place in the American League Central for much of the season, the Guardians now find themselves in a three-way battle for the division crown as September nears.
Cleveland held a nine-game lead in the division during the final week of June and was ahead by six games at the beginning of August. Three consecutive losses to the Kansas City Royals this week pushed the two teams into a first-place tie but the Guardians jumped back in front with a win Wednesday.
The Guardians are somewhat of an enigma. Their starting rotation has a bottom-10 ERA and Cleveland ranks 19th in team OPS. The bullpen has been phenomenal and leads the American League with a 2.79 ERA, thanks in part to a historic season for closer Emmanuel Clase.
There aren’t many “stars” on Cleveland's roster outside of Jose Ramirez. Still, the Guardians put together a thrilling first half under rookie manager Stephen Vogt and there's no reason to believe they can’t do it again for a month. Now would be the time to get things back on track.
September baseball just means more, especially to a team in the thick of a playoff race. The Guardians are trying to defy the odds and prove they're among the American League's elite. A strong final month before the playoffs would do that. More than a few players are due for a breakout.
All-Star infielder eyes to thrive in September
It's been a strange MLB career for Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez. He debuted with the New York Mets in 2020, finishing seventh in the American League Rookie of the Year Award voting. Two years later he earned his first Gold Glove Award and was named an All-Star with the Guardians. Fast forward two more years and Gimenez is going through his worst statistical season in the majors.
The 25-year-old is hitting .250 with 18 doubles, 24 steals and a .625 OPS, the second-worst among qualified hitters this season. Gimenez averaged 16 home runs a season over the past two years but has only five in 2024 with 28 games left.
His elite defense warrants everyday play, but the Guardians want to see more from Gimenez at the plate. He's shown he's capable of producing at the major league level and finished sixth in AL MVP Award voting just two years ago. Other underlying stats show he's been slightly unlucky this season.
According to Baseball Savant, Gimenez increased his line drive and hard-hit percentages from last season. He's also cut down his whiff and chase rates while swinging at more pitches. His weak contact rate is also down, although his average exit velocity remains toward the bottom of the league.
This prediction is based on Gimenez being due more than his recent play or certain metrics. However, his on-base percentage in August is better than previous months and he's recorded a hit in five of his last seven games. He also drove in a huge insurance run for Cleveland in a much-needed win over the Royals Wednesday.
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The Guardians and Andres Gimenez better hope that his career trend of raking in September continues despite his disappointing season. He hit .333 with an .859 OPS last September and October and is a career .292 hitter in over 330 at-bats during the season's final month.
Guardians starter searching for success
Looking at some of Cleveland's pitching numbers, it's a shock the Guardians are still in first place and within reach of the top seed in the American League. Only the 49-win Miami Marlins have gotten less production from their starting rotation as Miami and Cleveland have the lowest starting pitcher fWAR in their respective leagues.
When ace Shane Bieber was lost for the season with an elbow injury a week into April, it put a damper on the Guardians' pitching staff. It's one thing to lose your best pitcher but it stings more when it's on the back of a similar injury to another key starter Gavin Williams.
Williams didn’t take the mound for Cleveland until July. The Guardians expected him to be a major figure in their rotation after a promising rookie season but Williams has struggled to find his rhythm in 2024.
The 25-year-old is 2-7 with a 4.99 in 11 starts. Opponents increased their batting average against Williams by 37 points compared to last season, jumping from .219 to .256. Walks have also been a problem for him as he's issued multiple free passes in eight of his 11 outings and had eight walks in his past three.
Some of it has come down to bad luck, particularly in the run support department. The Guardians have been shutout 13 times this year with Williams starting four of those games. Cleveland averages a mere two runs per game across Williams' 11 starts. He allowed three or fewer runs in eight starts but has only two wins from it. The Guardians are 3-8 when he's on the bump.
Similar to Andres Gimenez, a revert to past trends will put Gavin Williams in the limelight in September. He posted a 2.65 ERA with a pair of quality starts in three outings last September. The Guardians are desperate to establish a third starter for the playoffs. Williams is the leading candidate but has to show signs of improvement next month.
