The Houston Astros are engaged in controversy, and it's threatening to derail their hopes for another World Series title. Ultimately, a lot is going on in South Texas right now. The Astros' fatal flaw is something that would have been unlikely a few years ago. Additionally, the Astros' World Series hopes could go by the wayside if they don't figure it out. Not being able to figure this out could cause an Astros playoff collapse.
Houston currently has +1400 odds to win the World Series, according to figures from FanDuel. Oddsmakers give them the eighth-best chance of winning the title. Although they are certainly contenders, something seems off. The American League seems to have other contenders who are gaining more steam. Plus, the competition is motivated, and there might be more challenges.
The Astros reacquired Carlos Correa at the MLB trade deadline. While that may reunite some of the players who helped them win a World Series, it doesn't guarantee anything. Pitching has been stellar. However, hitting has been the Astros' fatal flaw in 2025 and could prevent them from making it to the World Series.
This isn't the first time the Astros' offense has struggled
The Astros' playoff collapse in 2024 was unprecedented. When the Best-of-3 series with the Detroit Tigers began, many believed they would get past the inexperienced team with few issues. Instead, the Tigers swept them. What made this worse was that the Astros combined for just three runs in these two games.
The once-powerful Astros lineup could not muster many runs, and it cost them dearly in the playoffs. Moreover, it cost them a chance at the World Series. The Astros signed Christian Walker in the offseason as a response to the postseason offensive struggles. Throughout the season, the team has experienced mixed results. Yet, the same problems persist. Although there have been games where the Astros have looked amazing, there have been circumstances where they have struggled.
The current Astros' fatal flaw
There are some positives. Currently, the Astros are seventh in batting average, indicating their ability to get on base and get hits. The problem is that they are not capitalizing on those hits. Houston ranks 14th in on-base percentage, displaying an inability to capitalize on the hits they get. Likewise, they are just 23rd in runs. The power has also been down, as the team ranks 18th in home runs and 16th in slugging percentage.
Jose Altuve has remained steady, batting .272 with 24 home runs, 68 RBIs, and 73 runs. Meanwhile, Walker is hitting .235 with 21 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 59 runs. Isaac Paredes sustained a significant hamstring injury, which has kept him out for the last two months. Before that, he was hitting .253 with 18 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 47 runs. Yordan Alvarez has also struggled with injuries and is just not hitting the ball well. So far, he is batting .229 with four home runs, 22 RBIs, and 11 runs over 36 games. If those numbers scaled over a full season, Alvarez would only have 18.
The offense just does not seem as threatening as it once was. Yes, they might get past the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, or Kansas City Royals. But do they have enough to beat the Detroit Tigers or Toronto Blue Jays?
Why the lineup will cause an Astros playoff collapse
Pitching does win championships. However, a team also needs a consistent offense. The Los Angeles Angels' teams in the mid-2000s were proof of this, as they had good pitching staffs but little to no offense. So far, the Astros don't have that in 2025.
Assuming the Astros win the AL West, they will still face some good pitching. If they can get past the Mariners or whoever claims the final spot, they would likely face the Tigers or Blue Jays. This lineup would struggle against Tarik Skubal, who shut them out two weeks ago. Overall, they are 2-4 against the Tigers this season.
The Astros had more success against the Blue Jays, having swept them in three games at home. But this was when their hitting was doing much better in April. With one more regular-season series against the Jays coming up next week, the Astros will get a golden opportunity to see if the win in April was legitimate or if it was a fluke.
For now, the lineup looks like a major Astros fatal flaw. Altuve cannot do it all by himself, and there is no telling if Paredes will be able to return. Alvarez has been a playoff hero in the past, but it's difficult to tell if he will be able to do it again. Also, Walker is the new guy in town and has been hitting well, but he might also struggle if he faces a top-tier pitcher.
