After the Kansas City Royals lost to the New York Yankees in the 2024 MLB Playoffs, they have fought to get back. They are 68-65 and trailing the Seattle Mariners by three games for the final AL Wild Card spot heading into Wednesday's action. The Royals' playoff chances are dwindling with 29 games left to go in the season. Regardless, they still have hope in the AL Wild Card race.
Kansas City currently has +440 odds to make the MLB Playoffs, according to FanDuel. Overall, this translates to an 18.5% chance of making the playoffs. Things don't look very good for the Royals right now. But stranger things have happened in baseball, and the Royals have as good a chance as anyone.
To make it as an AL Wild Card, this team will need to go on a hot streak. Three games seem like nothing, but it is also the largest deficit ever, when a team also needs the team ahead of them to lose. Here is how the Royals can win the AL Wild Card spot.
Hitters will determine the Royals' playoff push
Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot and continues to set records for the Royals. Witt is batting .296 with 19 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 85 runs while also having a .353 on-base percentage. Additionally, he has swiped 34 bags, continuing to be one of the biggest threats on the basepaths. Vinnie Pasquantino has been on fire, clobbering home runs for five straight games. Now, he is batting .262 with 28 home runs, 92 RBIs, and 56 runs while also producing a .474 slugging percentage. These two have been a force, but others have helped, too.
Maikel Garcia has been great at the top of the lineup, batting .297 with 13 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 62 runs while stealing 22 bases. Likewise, Salvador Perez has remained steady, hitting .244 with 22 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 44 runs. Although these guys have produced, the rest of the lineup has not always been consistent.
The Royals are currently 17th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, 27th in runs, 26th in home runs, and 20th in slugging percentage. Unfortunately, this offense has been inconsistent, and it has hindered their path to success. While Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez have all been excellent, the other five in the starting lineup have been less than stellar.
Pitching can help them in the AL Wild Card race
Pitching has not always been great for the Royals, and it has affected their chances in the AL Wild Card race. Still, there are some good pitchers to talk about.
Noah Cameron has been solid, going 7-6 with a 2.92 ERA. Surprisingly, he has done solid work since entering the rotation. Seth Lugo has dealt with inconsistency this season. So far, he is 8-6 with a 3.99 ERA. However, Lugo has shown in the past that he can turn it on when needed and will be integral to the Royals' playoff push. Michael Wacha has been good, going 8-10 with a 3.39 ERA over 26 starts. Although he has done everything he could to improve the Royals' playoff chances, it has not always worked out. Michael Lorenzen has struggled, going 5-8 with a 4.62 ERA. Overall, the rotation has been consistent, ranking fourth in team ERA.
The bullpen has been just as good. Notably, Carlos Estevez has been electric, going 4-5 with a 2.62 ERA and 35 saves in 41 chances. Estevez has led a bullpen that is seventh in team ERA. If the Royals are to make a push in the AL Wild Card race, they need their pitching to remain elite and find ways to keep games close.
How September shapes up for the Royals
September is looking even more important than ever. After the series with the Chicago White Sox concludes, the Royals will finish August with a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers at home. There will be some winnable games at the start of September, as the Royals play a three-game series against the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins, respectively.
The seven-game road trip against the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies will be the Royals' biggest test. After that, they will play the Mariners in a big, three-game series at home. If the Royals can bridge the gap between now and then, that series will become the most important series of the season. The last three games of the regular season will be against the Toronto Blue Jays, providing a tough test for this team.
The Royals will end the regular season with six road games against the Angels and Athletics. If the Royals are ahead of the M's by the time they reach that critical six-game stretch, they will have a golden chance to clinch an AL Wild Card spot. But everything starts right now.
