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The New York Mets made this biggest splash of the offseason. Juan Soto moved across town after one year with the New York Yankees to join the Amazins. Expectations are obviously high in Queens after a trip to the NLCS and a historic addition. But if anything is going to hold the Mets back, their pitching could be the fatal flaw. Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea headline a shallow group.
This offseason, the Mets signed Holmes and Frankie Montas and brought back Manaea. With Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Griffin Canning, Paul Blackburn, and Kodai Senga already on the team, they had solid depth. But spring training always comes with injuries and the Mets were dealt two. Manaea and Montas will start the season on the injured list. With those two down, pitching depth becomes an issue.
Holmes had a great spring training, posting a sub-one ERA in 19.1 innings. But this will be his first foray into starting in the major leagues. He was a reliever with the Pittsburgh Pirates before he was traded to the Yankees in 2021. Holmes made four starts in his rookie year with the Pirates, posting an 8.40 ERA in 14 innings. Now, he is New York's Opening Day starter.
Reports from Port St Lucie indicate that Blackburn will start the year in the bullpen. Blackburn is a career starter who can bump up to the rotation if Holmes struggles or if there is another injury. But that is all the Mets have to lean back on as this season begins. They proved last year a poor first week can disappear quickly, but a sustained slump may be hard to recover from.
The Mets can address this fatal flaw by making a trade before the trade deadline in July. With a win-now lineup, they cannot afford a poor pitching season in 2025.
The Mets need some of the Brewers' magic
David Stears left his post as the President of Baseball Operations with the Milwaukee Brewers to join the Mets in September 2023. He was responsible for starting this run of Brewers baseball that has seen them shed payroll and still win divisions at a high rate. With Steve Cohen's seemingly endless pockets, his skills are even more dangerous for competing teams.
Last year, while Stearns was in New York, Matt Arnold and the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles. They won the division by ten games with great seasons from Tobias Myers and Freddy Peralta. Their pitching development program has kept them competitive through years of shedding payroll. Mets fans hope that Stearns brought that process to New York.
If his first year in Queens is any indication, Stearns did bring some pitching magic to the Mets. Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana all had great seasons with low expectations. Manaea and Severino were rewarded with big contracts in free agency. Quintana went to the Brewers, hoping to have another solid season. If that momentum continues, this flaw may go away.
The Mets' fatal flaw is certainly not their lineup. Their top three of Francisco Lindor, Soto, and Pete Alonso challenge any other lineup in the league. Young depth pieces Luisangel Acuña and Francisco Alvarez have shone in limited MLB action. Mark Vientos burst onto the scene last year. And Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo are solid professionals. The pitching will have to live up to the offense's expectations for the Mets to succeed in 2025.
The Mets open their season with a tough matchup against the Houston Astros. While their team has changed, going to Houston will always be tough. Clay Holmes will have a big task on March 27 in Houston.
