The New York Mets (82-77) have dared the baseball gods to smite them throughout the second half of the 2025 campaign, but lucky for them, the other National League Wild Card contenders have pushed them out of the way and stunningly decided to absorb the lightning bolt themselves. And so, despite failing to adequately address the obvious holes in its starting pitching rotation, and cratering in the beginning of both August and September, the Flushing-based club is in position to make the playoffs.
The Mets are one game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the third and final NL postseason berth. They are beginning a road series versus the determined Miami Marlins (77-82), while their foremost challenger is visiting the MLB-leading Milwaukee Brewers (96-63). These factors combine to make New York a clear favorite to reach the Wild Card round. FanGraphs currently has the team's odds at 78.5 percent.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Network vehemently disagrees with that figure. “I actually think that they're in trouble,” he said on Friday's edition of “MLB Now.”
“I don't see how that math works at all. I think they're counting too much on the names. The Marlins give them trouble all the time… They do not like the Mets and they've set it up {to have} their best three pitchers pitching (Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera). The Mets' hitters do not hit Alcantara. He is good. They're in trouble.”
"They should not be 80% [probability to make the Postseason]."
– @JonHeyman on the Mets pic.twitter.com/VDqBVhyvUV
— MLB Now (@MLBNow) September 26, 2025
The Reds will need the Mets to stumble one more time
New York has not given fans reason to be incredibly enthusiastic heading into the final series of the regular season, but it is completely reasonable for odds makers and statisticians to label this squad a big favorite over Cincinnati. While the Reds have comparatively squeezed more collective value out of their limited resources than the Mets have from their approximate $340 million payroll, they have also wasted multiple opportunities down the stretch.
Cincy was swept by the Athletics two weeks ago and just dropped two out of three at home versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. Terry Francona's squad has shown admirable perseverance and stung together timely winning streaks to stay firmly in the playoff hunt, but where would the Reds be if not for the Mets' ongoing inconsistencies?
Even if New York does scuffle in Miami like Heyman warns, Cincinnati still has to topple a Milwaukee team that is looking to secure home-field advantage for the entire playoffs. Just as the Marlins relish the chance to spoil the Mets' October dreams, the Brewers would certainly gain some satisfaction in ending their divisional rival's season. The Reds have lost seven of 10 games versus Pat Murphy's crew in 2025.
Ergo, the projections do not seem as outrageous as Jon Heyman believes. He is still right to be skeptical, however. A loaded lineup featuring Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso will not be enough to propel New York to more than 85 regular season wins. The time for applying logic is over.
If Francona has any pixie dust left over from his magical 2004 run with the Boston Red Sox, and the Reds' stout rotation dominates, the numbers could be invalidated once more.
