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The Seattle Mariners have been one of the biggest surprises during the 2022 season, and a big reason for that is because of the play of Julio Rodriguez, their rookie center fielder. As the MLB season nears its conclusion, it's clear that Rodriguez is the frontrunner for the American League Rookie of the Year award.
The only other real competitor for the award is Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. Rutschman got called up midway through the season and has been a steadying presence at the middle of Baltimore's lineup during his time in the majors. It's clear that Rutschman has a bright future behind the plate for Baltimore.
Still, when it comes to the AL ROTY race, it isn't really a contest. Rodriguez has vastly outperformed Rutschman this season, and unless something wild happens over the final few weeks of the season, he's going to walk away with this award. With that in mind, let's take a look at the two big reasons that Rodriguez will beat Rutschman for the AL Rookie of the Year.
2. Julio Rodriguez has played more in the majors than Adley Rutschman this season
In order to win the Rookie of the Year award, you have to be in the majors. Rodriguez has been for the entirety of the 2022 season, while on the other hand, Rutschman has not. Even though Rodriguez missed the first two weeks of August on the injured list, he's still played in 34 more games than Rutschman so far this season.
That has allowed Rodriguez to dominate the counting stats that will help determine who ultimately wins the awards. Simply put, Rodriguez has had more time to put his case together this season. Had Rutschman spent the entire season in the majors like Rodriguez, this race is probably closer than it is now as head into the final few weeks of the season.
Rutschman may get bonus points from voters because he plays catcher, which is a very in-demand position in the majors. Finding production at the catcher position is not easy, and the Orioles appear to have managed to land it in Rutschman. However, that shouldn't really play a factor in the voting considering Rodriguez has been good in the outfield all season long.
What it boils down to is Rodriguez had more time and Rutschman to build his case. Rutschman's strong play has at least made things a bit suspenseful, but there aren't many folks expecting him to walk away from the season as the American League Rookie of the Year.
1. Julio Rodriguez has outperformed Adley Rutschman in every major category
Of course, the more important piece of the puzzle is each player's production. It doesn't really matter than Rodriguez spent more time in the majors that Rutschman; if Rutschman outperformed Rodriguez in a limited timeframe he would win the award. The thing is, he hasn't, which is why Rodriguez should be a shoe-in for this award.
Rodriguez has been producing at a high level all season long, and his potential as a five-tool player has been on full display all season long (.277 BA, 25 HR, 71 RBI, 24 SB, .831 OPS). Rodriguez is still just 21 years old, and the sky appears to be the limit for the Mariners young star.
In comparison, Rutschman has been good, but his numbers don't really come close to Rodriguez's (.254 BA, 10 HR, 30 RBI, .807 OPS). Rutschman has managed to show incredible plate discipline during his time in the majors (he's drawn 52 walks while only striking out 67 times) which has helped him get his OPS as close to Rodriguez's as it is.
Other than his plate discipline and ability to play catcher, there isn't much working in Rutschman's favor here. All of Rodriguez's counting stats are higher than Rutschman's, and his batting average is pretty far off from Rodriguez's. The OPS indicates that their gap as hitters isn't as drastic as it seems, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Rutschman put together a breakout sophomore campaign as a result. But for the time being, it isn't a close contest.
Rodriguez's status as a starter from day one for the Mariners has made him a frontrunner for this award from the get go. He struggled early on, but he eventually found his footing, and ever since, he's been one of the most dynamic players in the league. He's already picked up his first All-Star selection and was invited to participate in the Home Run Derby, and it seems like this year was only the first time we have seen Rodriguez in these events.
Whereas Rutschman is still developing, Rodriguez has already proven himself this season. He should be able to parlay that into a relatively uncontested Rookie of the Year award as a result.
