The New York Mets have been steadily climbing the National League standings, holding a 1.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves for the last wild-card spot. They'll face the Washington Nationals, a team that shouldn't give them much resistance. The Nationals are 14 games back of the wild card and just waiting for the season's final days to run out to get an early vacation. It won't get any easier for the Nationals here, as the Mets have won eight of their past ten meetings this season, and currently own a five-game win streak after taking the first two in this series. The Nationals were coming off a three-game win streak against the Miami Marlins, but have won just five of their past ten. The Mets' run slowed recently, but they've still won six of their last ten. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Nationals-Mets prediction and pick.
Nationals-Mets Projected Starters
DJ Herz vs. Jose Quintana
DJ Herz is 4-7 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
Herz's last start was at home against the Miami Marlins. He pitched 5 innings with 5 strikeouts, allowing 4 hits, 1 walk, 1 earned run, and 1 home run. The Nationals won 4-1, with Herz earning the victory. It was his second-straight victory after he allowed just 1 earned run in 10 innings over his last two starts.
Herz is 1-2 on the road with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has roughly the same numbers at home but has been more effective on the road.
Jose Quintana is 9-9 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Quintana's last start was on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies. He pitched 7 innings with 4 strikeouts, allowing 3 hits, no walks, and no earned runs. It was the third time in his last four starts that he had a scoreless outing, with the other being a one-run, five-inning outing against the Chicago White Sox.
Quintana is 4-5 at home with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-154)
Moneyline: +136
New York Mets: -1.5 (+128)
Moneyline: -162
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
How to Watch Nationals vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: MASN, SNY
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Nationals have the correct man on the mound if they want someone to go toe-to-toe with Quintana. Herz allowed one or fewer runs in three of his past four starts. The starters could have a pitching duel before they exit the game, but the question is whether either team's bullpen can hold up.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets haven't been tearing the cover off the ball, but they've been generating runs at a slightly better rate than the Nationals. They are hitting .210 over their last ten games, but have a .297 on-base percentage and four runs/nine. The Nationals have a better average at .224. However, they have a .281 on-base percentage and 3.8 runs/nine.
Jose Quintana will be the catalyst for the Mets' success in this matchup. He hasn't given up a run in his last 13 2/3 innings and has given up one in his past 25. The Nationals have already struggled to generate runs, and it could be trouble if Quintana stays locked in for this game.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
Neither of these offenses has been in impressive form, and both starters have been the best on their team over the past few weeks. The bullpens are a bit scary for this bet, but we'll take this game as a pitching duel and go under after the Mets' offense exploded on Tuesday night.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: Under 7 (-102)
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