It feels like only last week that everyone was crowded in their living rooms watching the Miami Heat take on the eventual NBA champion Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals, and yet the 2023-24 season is already almost nearly upon us.
NBA training camp will be open for all 30 teams by Oct. 3 and the 2023-24 preseason will begin on Oct. 5, giving fans only three and a half weeks to prepare for one of the most interesting seasons to date. If you haven't caught up on the news about Bradley Beal heading to Phoenix, Damian Lillard trying to escape PDX, or Joel Embiid wanting to win a championship so bad that he would leave Philly to do it, there may no better time to read up.
In the meantime, we’ve prepared a list 30 potential breakout players next season — one from each team — as the countdown to the 2023-24 regular season tip-off (Oct. 24) begins. Some names may be familiar, some names may brush the dust off your memory banks, but all have a chance to make a much larger impact this upcoming season than they did in 2022-23.
One breakout candidate for all 30 teams ahead…
ATL — Onyeka Okongwu
Why: The writing appeared to be on the wall for a while, but the day may have finally come for veteran center Clint Capela to either move to the bench or move on to another team. Offseason rumors indicate that the Atlanta Hawks prefer to take the second route. In any case, it’s time to elevate this team's ceiling on both ends.
Though Capela still has value as an interior defender, namely as a shot-blocking presence, Onyeka Okongwu hasn't been bad in that area either due to his physical traits, timing, and defensive technique. In fact, Okongwu had a slightly higher block per game average than Capela while averaging fewer minutes per game. Capela did have a better overall impact inside, likely an advantage of his length and experience. However, much like with Rudy Gobert, these days its proving to be just as important to have a switchable center as a traditional interior defender.
Offensively, though Capela is a favorite target of offensive engine Trae Young, Okongwu has pick-and-pop potential that Capela does not. Though it may be a minor difference to some, the ability to diversify their offense and take advantage of soft spots could be an x-factor in any number of games.
BOS — Payton Pritchard
Why: No Marcus Smart, no problem. Well, not really. Still, Fast PP should finally get his chance to be in the rotation, an issue that led to offseason rumors about his desire to be traded from the Boston Celtics. Payton, a first-round pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, can be a nice spark plug and possibly double his scoring average if he plays about 20 minutes per game.
That may seem like an arbitrary number but over the course of his career, he's averaged 12.8 points per game when playing in between 20-29 minutes. It's a small sample size (5 games) but could be a starting point as the Celtics and offensive-minded head coach Joe Mazzulla attempt to find a sweet spot for his minutes. While Pritchard will likely be a more efficient 3-point threat than Smart, shooting 37.9 percent from 3 in college and 40.0 percent from 3 in the pros, his defense will always be a concern due to his less-than-ideal height (6-foot-1).
Payton is still a tenacious defender though and that could keep him on the floor. The Oregon product is injury insurance for Malcolm Brogdon as well, in light of concerning rumors about the veteran combo guard's health.
BRK — Ben Simmons
Why: In all seriousness, people may have forgotten how good Ben Simmons is. Even before his injury, his passive nature as a scorer led to many unfortunate fans, media members, analysts and even his own teammates… forgetting the impact that he has a playmaker, defender, and rebounder. Literally every other facet of the game, although Simmons has also had nights when he was aggressive attacking the rim in the open or halfcourt.
As for his offensive weakness (shooting), Simmons probably will not come out of the gates firing. In fact, he may not take many jumpers the entire season. However, as a means of getting his own confidence back and in order to draw defensive attention away from his teammates, there's a legitimate chance he's aggressive next season. Especially if his teammates are serious about helping him get back to star form, feeding him when feasible.
In any case, he should remain suffocating on defense and continue to be connector that the Nets need with a lot of players whose worst offensive skill is his best (passing), and vice versa.
CHI – Ayo Dosunmo
Why: Chicago Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmo believes that next season will be his best because his third year of basketball has always been, from high school to college. Superstitions aside, that type of confidence this offseason is key for a player whose development seemed to stagnate from his rookie season. A player who could have the best piece for them off the bench.
At the beginning of the season, incoming point guard Jevon Carter or stalwart defender Alex Caruso may start beside Zach LaVine in the backcourt. However, Dosunmo has a combination of size, athleticism, passing ability, scoring potential, and defensive intensity that should get him in the starting lineup somehow. Especially if he starts knocking down 3s at a rate more similar to his rookie season (37.6 percent).
Besides, no matter who starts at point guard, they don't have the archetypal floor general that Lonzo Ball was. So why not start Ayo, a player that has a four-inch height advantage over Carter, better in-between game than Caruso, and better defense than Coby White?
CHO – Mark Williams
Why: LaMelo Back is back after being limited to 36 games last season. The best facilitator on the roster by a country mile and one of the most electrifying passers in the league as a whole, his impact as floor general will be most felt by their rim-running big men. However, it won't be all on him to get the rock moving, and the team's ball-movement may actually be the best it's ever been.
Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller, who could potentially start beside LaMelo in a supersized backcourt, is going to move the ball better than Kelly Oubre Jr. did. In both Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward, the Hornets have a couple of other solid facilitators as well, meaning that Mark Williams he should see his fair share of finishes.
The 15th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Williams can also anchor Charlotte's defense thanks to his athleticism, length (7-foot-2 in shoes with a 7-foot-6 wingspan), timing and feel. To that end, getting Williams as many minutes as quickly as possible would be ideal.
CLE – Dean Wade
Why: Cleveland Cavaliers forward Dean Wade has been really quiet. A little bit too quiet, in fact. Amid an underwhelming season that saw him shooting 35.7 percent from 3 after he replaced fan favorite Kevin Love and signed a multi-year contract extension, that could be for the best. He needs to focus on rediscovering his shooting stroke, especially in light of the team signing veteran sharpshooter Georges Niang in free agency.
However, it may be the less glamorous end of the floor that allows him to claim the starting small forward spot by the start of the season. Niang may always be a better outside threat, knocking down 40.3 percent of his threes over the course of a seven-year NBA career. Nonetheless, the 6-foot-9 Wade is a bit more fluid defensively and has better size than the 6-foot-7 Niang, factors that simply matter with due to Cleveland's smallish backcourt.
DAL – Josh Green
Why: Reggie Bullock? Gone. Tim Hardaway Jr.? Might be gone soon. Last season? Flashes of mid and high-usage offensive playmaking that make him a very intriguing young player with two-way upside. Especially if the Dallas Mavericks really do end up moving Hardaway in a deal for a defensive piece like Atlanta Hawks center Clint Capela. A trade that makes sense for both sides in part because of Josh Green.
Last season, Green averaged 9.1 points per game on 53.7 percent shooting from the field and 40.2 percent shooting from 3. He was at his best in February, when he averaged 13.6 points per game on 53.7 percent shooting from the field and 40.4 percent shooting from 3 across 11 contests. A three-and-D wing with playmaking potential, Green should start for the Mavs next season and beyond.
DEN – Peyton Watson
Why: On the one hand, there's just a feeling that one gets about Peyton Watson, the 30th overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and top-ranked high school basketball recruit coming out of California in the Class of 2021.
Watson has nascent iso scoring skills, prototypical length at 6-foot-8, great athleticism, a high motor, and regularly makes a positive impact on the defensive end. To that point, the Nuggets already view him as a potential Bruce Brown replacement, an important role for the 20-year-old.
DET – Cade Cunningham
Why: It’s not like 21-year-old point guard Cade Cunningham, an All-American at Oklahoma State and the top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, is an unknown quantity. Even before standing out with USA Basketball this offseason, he landed himself on the All-Rookie first team and proved himself to be one of the most promising players of his generation.
However, up to this point, Cunningham has been unable to knock down outside jumpers at the rate he was projected to. Converting just 30.9 percent of his 3-point attempts in his short career, it's the only area of his game that stands major improvement. To that end, a fully healthy Cunningham that has his legs under him and at least one more solid facilitator to get him open looks from beyond the arc in Ausar Thompson should boost his numbers.
If so, he may have even an All-Star season, proving himself to be the most complete guard in the East.
GSW – Trayce-Jackson Davis
Why: If veteran forward Draymond Green had left the Golden State Warriors in free agency — and for a while it seemed like he really was considering the possibility — then upstart forward Jonathan Kuminga would likely be on the verge of a breakout season. To that point, although Draymond points to the addition of seasoned point guard Chris Paul as a move that will help Kuminga in the second unit, there's only so much of a greater impact that he can make while playing in the same role that he had last season.
In any case, All-American big man Trayce Jackson-Davis could have a legitimate impact for the Warriors next season. Playing four seasons with the Indiana Hoosiers and the final two under former NBA head coach Mike Woodson, TJD isn't the average rookie in terms of experience and headiness. Furthermore, with his playmaking upside and scoring potential, he presents an interesting complement to Kevon Looney. Even when they go want to go small, using Green or Kuminga, Jackson-Davis may provide them with a greater impact on the boards or as a shot-blocker.
HOU – Amen Thompson
Why: Sometimes a prospective car buyer will see a real nice-looking car — one with generally great reviews and that does a little bit more than just getting them from Point A to Point B — and then realize it’s not all they thought it would be. It's a little small. The gas mileage is too high. The car note is ridiculous. But luckily there's another car they had looked at, even though they were kind of waiting to get it because they wanted to do a bit more research on it.
Then they realize the second car drives better, handles better, has better feel and better size than the first car. The fact that it's pretty efficient on gas mileage, has a low car note and pretty much no miles on it is pretty cool to.
That’ll be the Houston Rockets when they start comparing veteran guard Fred VanVleet to rookie guard Amen Thompson next season.
(By the way, gas mileage here is a metaphor for efficiency.)
IND – Obi Toppin
Why: You have to wonder why New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau took the approach he did with Obi Toppin during his time there. Though Thibs is one of best NBA head coaches to have manned the sideline, he blatantly — though not completely — misused a guy that wants to get out on the break and above the rim. In fact, any season when the number of dunks Toppin throws down doesn't at least equal the number of 3s he takes may be a waste of his talent.
After all, while Toppin did make 41.7 percent of his 3s in college, it was on a relatively limited sample size and with the shorter college 3-point line. While Toppin appears capable of being more efficient than the 32.5 percent from 3 that he's shooting to this point in his young career, the fact that remains that the formula for his success is to be a bigger threat above-the-rim than behind-the-arc.
Luckily, he’s with Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers now, where he will definitely get a chance to play his preferred style. He might also get to explore the offensive game that led to 21.8 PPG the last five games of the 2022-23 regular season.
LAC — KJ Martin
Why: A team that could use young legs and an above-the-rim threat in the frontcourt rotation, it’s not hard to see KJ Martin (the son of former NBA star forward Kenyon Martin) having a significant impact for the Los Angeles Clippers.
This becomes even more true if there's any veracity to the rumors about the Clippers' willingness to trade veteran Marcus Morris, who appears disgruntled about his role within the offense. Not only because Morris played 28.1 minutes per game for L.A. last season but because the trade package that he could be included in might net them All-Star guard James Harden. While the Clippers will already have one high-level facilitator in Russell Westbrook, having another in Harden and playmakers like Paul George will just make the game that much easier for Martin.
What makes Martin a breakout candidate is less about him showing what he hasn't shown to this point than his doing it for a championship-contender for the first time in his career.
LAL — Cam Reddish
Why: There are many potential breakout players for the Los Angeles Lakers — Rui Hachimura, Max Christie, Jalen Hood-Schifino — but Lakers leader LeBron James is bound to have a closer eye the dynamic Cam Reddish than any of their offseason additions.
Like everyone else, James is clearly intrigued by some combination of the 23-year-old's upside, pre-draft projections, play style, and talent. However, he has a level of influence unlike anyone else and if he believes that Reddish is the guy the Lakers need to have playing behind him or Austin Reaves on the wing, then it's difficult to see anyone in the Lakers organization disagreeing unless proven otherwise.
With that said, although Reddish has yet to latch onto any team, learning from a playmaker, transition threat and slasher as talented as LeBron should help him play to his strengths. James also has a basketball IQ and desire to teach unlike anyone else Reddish has played with in his four career seasons, and can do plenty to sharpen the decision-making, approach and focus of the former 10th overall pick.
MEM — n/a
Why: Below is a possible rotation for the Memphis Grizzlies next season, one very much dependent on veteran guard Derrick Rose being capable of playing at least a minor role for a team looking to regain its momentum out West.
G: Ja Morant, Derrick Rose
G: Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard
F: Desmond Bane, John Konchar
F: Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke
C: Steven Adams, Xavier Tillman Sr.
This rotation is not bad in any sense of the word. However, when looking at their depth and not only assessing the best fit for players in their potential rotation but the projections for the players not expected to be in, it's unlikely that anyone is going to be wowed by something they haven’t seen.
It's possible that the most that can be said in the way of a breakout player for the Grizzlies is that maybe Rose has one last hoorah. Despite after averaging 5.6 points per game last season, he averaged 12.0 points per game just the year prior. He's also back in Memphis, where he became a legend during the Memphis Tigers bid to win the 2008 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship.
MIA — Nikola Jovic
Why: Although Miami Heat rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. may surprise NBA fans with his aggressive approach and craftiness as early as next season, his playing on the wing could diminish his potential impact, with Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson and Jimmy Butler all ahead of him in the pecking order next season. 6-foot-5 combo forward Caleb Martin is another player Jaquez may have to contend with for minutes.
Meanwhile, 20-year-old Nikola Jovic plays at a long-time position of need for the Heat, where his only competition should be the undersized Martin and aging Kevin Love. Looking a bit more ready for the physical rigors of the NBA and more decisive as well, Jovic is in a prime position to break out for Miami.
MIL — Andre Jackson Jr.
Why: The Milwaukee Bucks need a point guard in their second unit and while former UConn standout Andre Jackson Jr. is listed at shooting guard, he’s an astute and heady playmaker. Besides, a player's position is highly influenced by the ones that they can defend the best. That said, the 6-foot-6 and 210-pound Jackson can feasibly guard 1-4.
Averaging the fifth-most assists in the Big East last season, Jackson is a gifted athlete with a high basketball IQ, great feel and an all-around impact that should only improve over time.
MIN — Leonard Miller
Why: One of the more popular prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft, Leonard Millar might end up being the best catch-and-shoot artist in the Minnesota Timberwolves' second unit frontcourt thanks to the departure of Taurean Prince. Though he shot just 32.7 percent from 3 for the G League Ignite last season, he knocked down 36.8 percent of his threes during the 2023 NBA Summer League.
Furthermore, Miller has a blend of physical traits, defensive impact, and hustle that gives him just a high enough floor to get regular minutes as a rookie. His impact on the boards might be especially appreciated for a team that seemed to have glass allergies in 2022-23.
NOP — Dyson Daniels
Why: The New Orleans Pelicans need a true floor general starting beside CJ McCollum in the backcourt. However, while they already had one on the roster in 20-year-old Dyson Daniels, point guard is one of most difficult positions to transition to play in the NBA and it’s understandable why he wasn’t starting as a rookie.
Nonetheless, after a strong Summer League showing that saw him averaging 14.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.2 steals per game, he could be ready to take the reins of the offense next season. With McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Jonas Valanciunas on the roster, Daniels doesn't need to focus on scoring. To his benefit, passing is what comes easiest to him on offense.
Defensively, having a player with his size (6-foot-8 and 200 pounds) and impact beside a lower-caliber defender like McCollum has intrinsic value. However, his potential to match up with the best players at up to four positions is what separates him from fan favorite Jose Alvarado on this end.
NYK — RJ Barrett
Why: If famed trainer Drew Hanlen is to be believed, New York Knicks wing RJ Barrett will be doing a little less dancing with Mr. Wilson next season, and instead focus on trying to get outside of his defender's hip on the drive. This projected change in offensive approach should increase underwhelming efficiency as he becomes more direct in his attack and help him get to the free-throw line (where he also must improve).
Hopefully, more playmaking reps are in Barrett's future as it's a part of his game that deserves to be explored. To that end, Barrett improving his efficiency should lead to him eventually having higher usage — and thus playmaking opportunities — next season.
OKC — Chet Holmgren
Why: In some ways, this answer feels like a default, even when acknowledging the potential of Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Ousmane Dieng and others. This is particularly true when realizing that the Oklahoma City Thunder don’t truly have anyone that’ll challenge Chet Holmgren for the starting center role, be it a veteran or young player.
However, an impressive 2023 NBA Summer League by Holmgren and a mature focus throughout both his rehab and this offseason lend themselves to the idea that he'll be everything the Thunder hoped for when they drafted him No. 2 overall in 2022. As does the fact that Oklahoma City has a bevy of facilitators that will make the game easier for the big man.
The last reason to bet on Holmgren is buying his defensive impact, a point of contention prior to the 2022 NBA Draft prior to his skinny frame. Truthfully, a year to grow and workout on the sidelines may have only helped him be more physically ready, even though the true behemoths at his position may still present him with a challenge. Nonetheless, at the very least, he won't be a liability when defending the interior.
ORL — Anthony Black
Why: Nobody has said it and maybe because they don’t believe it, but Anthony Black may start on the wing for the Orlando Magic next season, much like Josh Giddey did for the Oklahoma City after leaving the Adelaide 36ers (NBL) as a nominal point guard. Similar to OKC as well, this will be to accommodate a team leader, which is Markelle Fultz in this case rather than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Either way, Black a connector that will make everyone’s jobs easier on both ends thanks to his passing ability, scoring potential and pickpocket badge.
PHI — Tyrese Maxey
Why: To keep it simply, the reason that Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey should be on the verge of a breakout season is that 10-time All-Star James Harden should be headed out of town.
Whether it happens prior to training camp or sooner rather than later is still up in the air and possibly dependent on what happens with Portland Trail Blazers star guard Damian Lillard, long thought to be a player whose trade request created a holding pattern for quite a few of his fellow NBA fraternity members. Nonetheless, there's plenty of reason to believe that Maxey will soon have his chance to boost his career-high scoring average of 20.3 points per game.
If he does so while the Sixers remain dominant, it would only make the feat all the more impressive.
PHO — Bol Bol
Why: This might be Bol Bol’s best chance to prove himself after years of being a tantalizing but unpredictable talent. Based on the offseason videos that have come out since he signed with the Phoenix Suns, he might know it too.
Still drawing those infamous Victor Wembanyama comparisons, Bol has just enough spotlight on him during this new opportunity to really make noise next season. With veteran guard Eric Gordon a steady option and outlet beside him in the second unit, Bol now has a chance to anchor the Suns bench on both ends of the floor.
If he truly sharpens up beside those Hall of Famers that he now finds himself beside — let alone if he becomes even motivated by their greatness — then he might be the breakout player of 2023-24.
POR — Scoot Henderson
Why: Similar to the situation that James Harden finds himself in with the Philadelphia 76ers, try as they may to prevent the inevitable, Damian Lillard is leaving the Portland Trail Blazers. It's a prickly situation that's now all but at a point of no return, as Lillard has made his demands and desires known after years of showing an unwavering loyalty to an organization that many would say didn't deserve that much of it.
After all, why draft Scoot Henderson — a player at his best when the ball is in his hands rather than when asked to be off ball — if the intent was to persuade Lillard to stay anyways (regardless of if they kept the pick or not)?
In any case, with Lillard gone, Henderson should have free rein in the offense as he attempts to prove he can step into the big shoes left by Don D.O.L.L.A.
SAC— Sasha Vezenkov
Why: While soon-to-be second-year pro Keegan Murray or Davion Mitchell could breakout for the Sacramento Kings next season, Sasha Vezenkov — the reigning EuroLeague MVP — will surprise American fans with his 3-point prowess. A confident shooter with four consecutive seasons shooting above 38 percent from 3-point range, his impact in the second unit will be felt, especially in clutch moments.
In the grand scheme of things its circumstantial so it means little, but the Kings have a reputable history when it comes to foreign-born players, from Peja Stojakovic to Olden Polynice. As a result, the Bulgaria native could have a sizable international following already in place when he gets to Sacramento.
SAS — Victor Wembanyama
Why: Considering his combination of talent, scoring upside and playmaking potential, the San Antonio Spurs could look to run their offense through 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama by the end of his rookie season. To that point, if they improve their talent at point guard — acquiring not only a high-level facilitator like Tre Jones — but a highly experienced floor general and shot-creator as well (like, say, Golden State Warriors point guard Chris Paul) watch out.
The synergy between a point guard and big men is incredibly important. In this case, Spurs already have a player that they know will get Wemby the ball where he wants it in Jones. They also need an on-court teacher for him though (Gregg Popovich can't leave the coach's box after all), as well as one efficient enough from beyond the arc to make defenses reconsider crowding the paint.
TOR — Scottie Barnes
Why: Okay Scottie Barnes, it's time to stop playing around.
This is a statement made not because fans should anticipate Barnes turning into a 25 point per game scorer next season. It's one made because while some fans may want him to be a volume scorer, understandable as scoring is fun for the fans to watch in any sport, his best role is the Scottie Pippen one.
With veteran point guard Fred VanVleet leaving in free agency and taking his career-high usage rate of 28.1 percent from last season with him, Barnes should get to do that. Dennis Schroder, a score-first guard, only had a usage rate of 20.1 percent last season.
UTA — Collin Sexton
Why: Utah Jazz guard Collin Sexton faces steep backcourt competition in Salt Lake City. However, expect him to stand above the rest because he has the best combination of scoring, efficiency, experience, speed, and defensive and playmaking upside of anyone in the backcourt.
To be frank, Utah might prefer veteran Jordan Clarkson and rookie Keyonte George at point guard. This might be even more true after their most recent showings in front of Jazz fans and personnel. Nonetheless, there's something to be said about established volume scorers. The type of volume scorers proven to be efficient and effective from all three levels at the NBA level.
That being said, both Clarkson and George are better facilitators than Sexton right now, even with his growth in that area. Which is why the best approach for the Jazz is not to take the ball out of their hands in favor of Sexton but to use that duo's passing ability — their processing, sharpness, and variety of passes — to make his job easier. After all, he's the only player on the roster with multiple seasons averaging at least 20 points per game.
WAS — Jordan Poole
Why: It’s going be a Poole Party in his city, if he stops focusing on former teammate Draymond Green off the court. To that point, he probably will, he's just understandably embarrassed about a video showing him getting laid out by the veteran playmaker. Even if he was getting over that feeling, especially after being traded from a team that was showing perhaps more internal tension than ever, that same player re-hashed the situation for no reason other than to be an irritant.
He'll have to let that go and handle the battle in between the white lines. However, when the games get played, he'll show out no matter who he's facing. Likely to have the ball in his hands more than any other player next offseason, Poole's combination of shot-creation abilities and shooting touch won't replace Bradley Beal's leadership, but they may easily replace the impact he had on the scoreboard.
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