The front-runner for the MVP for yet another season is the newly crowned NBA Champion, Nikola Jokic. Coming off of a 24.5 point, 11.8 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game season, Jokic has all the momentum in the world. In addition, it helps that the Denver Nuggets had minimal roster turnover in the off-season, so his role and chemistry with teammates is as strong as ever. We have you covered with our NBA awards odds series with an MVP winner prediction and pick.

With the second-best odds is Luka Doncic. After a season that marked his highest point-per-game average, field goal percentage, and second fewest turnovers per game in his career, he is ready to elevate his status in the league. He has made the All-NBA First Team for the past four years and is currently looking at his best chance to win the MVP award.

Two-time MVP winner Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently third in the race for best odds. After the Bucks acquired point guard Damian Lillard, his odds trended downward slightly, but he remains hungrier than ever. He received the third most first-place votes in the MVP race last season after a career year and is ready to further build on it.

After finishing fourth in last season's MVP race, Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum rounds out this list. Although the Boston Celtics brought in a couple of big-name players through trade this off-season, Tatum remains this squad's centerpiece. Dropping a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists per game has Tatum playing as well as he ever.

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

NBA Odds: 2023-24 MVP Winner Odds

Nikola Jokic: +430

Luka Doncic: +550

Giannis Antetokounmpo: +600

Jayson Tatum: +750

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Why Nikola Jokic Will Win The MVP

All you need to defend why Nikola Jokic should win his third MVP award is just one word: efficiency. He is coming off his worst season of the past three years, yet he was still head and shoulders above everyone in the NBA. He led the league in Triple-Doubles with 29, doubling the second-place total of 14. Also, he held the highest offensive and net ratings (the difference between their offensive and defensive ratings) of any player who played in more than 31 games last season.

Jokic will also continue to dominate opponents in the post. He led the league in points scored off of touches in the post. Out of the top 70 total point scorers coming off of touches in the post, Jokic had the highest field goal percentage at 65.8%. Jokic knows his strengths and plays to them better than anyone else in the league. With no significant coaching changes or transactions for the Nuggets in the off-season, it is tough to find any reason why he would regress.

Why Luka Doncic Will Win The MVP

It seems like Luka Doncic has been putting up MVP numbers each of the last four seasons but is not getting MVP results. However, this year could be the end of that, with him winning his first MVP. For the most part, the key to a player winning this award has consistently been usage and points. This is where Doncic excels the most. He placed third (among players who played in more than two games) in usage percentage last season with 37.5%. This was a career-high for him, and that number only seems to be increasing.

When it comes to his scoring ability, not many players in the league can do it better than him. Even though his three-point shooting could use some work, his game-shooting from mid-range and around the basket is incredible. He made the tenth most two-point field goals on an impressive 58.8% shooting. It also helps that he has a player with one of the highest basketball IQs in NBA history on his team to aid in his and the team's success. In 20 games for the Mavs, Kyrie averaged 6.0 assists to just 1.9 turnovers per game and a total +/- of +96. Through five seasons in the league, Luka Doncic has collected a career stat line of 27.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game. With production like that and no slowing down in sight, it is a matter of when, not if, he will win this award.

Why Giannis Antetokounmpo Will Win The MVP

Although other players may be more efficient, no player in the league today is more dominant than Giannis Antetokounmpo. A true team leader who is the ultimate force on offense and defense is the definition of what it means to be the most valuable player in the league. Antetokounmpo enters this season with many players who will be getting the ball, so it may be challenging to maintain his league-leading usage percentage. However, this is still the same player with the same motor.

Of all the players in the league who played in more than 29 games last season, Antetokounmpo had the 11th-highest defensive win shares while averaging the fifth most points per game. This type of productivity on both ends of the floor is rarely seen in today's game. In addition, over the last three years, Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game, which fits the mold of the modern-day MVP award winner. Increased defensive focus on Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton will free up Antetokounmpo even more and allow him to be as dangerous as ever.r.

Why Jayson Tatum Will Win The MVP

For Jayson Tatum to win the MVP for this season, consistency and availability are the name of the game for him. This is where Tatum stands out from the pack. Tatum played the seventh most minutes in the league last season while only playing 74 games. The career-high 36.9 minutes per game he averaged led to him solidifying his position as one of, if not the best, small forward in the league. This availability also aided in his offensive dominance. Tatum's 3.2 made threes per game was the second highest among all forwards.

A player must have immense team success if they want to win this award. With the Celtics currently holding the highest projected win total in the league, with a line set at 54.5, all the attention in the league appears to be geared toward Tatum and the Celtics. With each of the last five MVPs leading their team to at least 47 wins, Tatum can secure this award if he can maintain his consistency in leading Boston to wins.

Final 2023-24 MVP Winner Prediction & Pick

Making an NBA MVP prediction is never easy. After examining commonalities between each of the last five MVP winners, it became evident who I am leaning toward. With each of these former MVPs averaging at least 27.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, the committee values all-around players but places a heavier weight on scoring. With Antetokounmpo and Tatum getting new teammates in the off-season that will take away from their production, I am ruling them out.

Although Jokic is the more seasoned player in accolades relative to Doncic, I will go with Luka to win the award. Doncic is the primary scorer, facilitator, and rebounder on this team. With increased chemistry between him and teammate Kyrie Irving, I can see Doncic getting force-fed the ball a lot while also being able to dish it out and rebound in return, leading the Mavericks to a breakout season.

Final 2023-24 MVP Winner Prediction & Pick: Luka Doncic (+550)