The Dallas Mavericks are entering the 2022-23 season with lofty expectations. Last season, the team finished fourth in the Western Conference with a 52-30 record. Unfortunately for the Mavs, they were not a match for the eventual NBA champions, the Golden State Warriors, in the Western Conference Finals.
Despite not achieving the ultimate goal, this was a season full of positives for Dallas. The franchise won its first playoff series since its title run in 2011. Additionally, the Mavericks had a big statement win over the Phoenix Suns in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinals, stunning Devin Booker and company, who were coming off a Finals appearance and had the best record in the league.
But is Dallas ready to take it to the next level?
Here are the 2022 NBA over/under win total odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Mavericks Over/Under Win Total NBA Odds
Over: 48.5 wins (-110)
Under: 48.5 wins (-110)
Why The Mavericks Will Win 48.5 Games
When Dirk Nowitzki retired in 2019, Mavs fans already had an idea of who would take the franchise over. After a strong rookie season, Luka Dončić has become one of the faces of the NBA. In just four years in the league, the Slovenian guard already has three All-Star appearances and three All-NBA First-Team selections under his belt.
Last year, Dončić averaged 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists. He made 45.7 percent of his field goals and 35.3 percent of his 3-point attempts in what was an incredible third season in the league.
Dončić alone could make any team a contender. However, the Mavericks have a solid supporting cast that can help the star in their quest for an NBA title. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Reggie Bullock can provide quality scoring, while Spencer Dinwiddie can be a good playmaker whenever Dončić is resting. At the very least, that group can approach the 50-win threshold this season.
Another big move the Mavs made was addressing the team’s most glaring need on the roster during the offseason. Not only did they sign JaVale McGee, who brings championship experience, but they traded for Christian Wood. Both players figure to see significant minutes and have strong contributions on both ends of the floor. Just last year with the Rockets, Wood averaged 17.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Why The Mavericks Won’t Win 48.5 Games
However, the Mavericks lost a key piece of the rotation this offseason. Jalen Brunson signed with the New York Knicks on a four-year, $104 million contract. In his last season in Dallas, the former Villanova Wildcat had his best year as a pro. He averaged 16.3 points, 4.8 assists and 3.9 rebounds. He also shot 50.2 percent on field goals, 37.3 percent from beyond the arc, and 84 percent from the free-throw line.
In the playoffs, Brunson became the clear No. 2 option behind Dončić. The guard’s numbers took a big leap to 21.6 points, and he started in all 18 of the Mavs’ playoff games.
The problem is that the Mavericks did not necessarily address his departure. While they signed Facundo Campazzo, the Argentinian comes off one of the worst seasons of his career. He averaged just 5.1 points with the Denver Nuggets with shooting splits of 36-30-77.
Brunson’s scoring and playmaking will certainly be missed in the Mavs’ system. Without him, there is no clear ball-handling guard to control the pace once Dončić is resting. If they have championship aspirations, the front office might keep an eye around the league to land another point guard similar to Brunson.
Final Mavericks Win Total Prediction: Over: 48.5 (-110)
At the end of the day, Dallas has an MVP-level player in Dončić. As long as he is healthy, the Mavericks are contenders for the West, perhaps even for the NBA Finals. While they will miss Brunson, the improved frontcourt could compensate with better rebounding and close shots. Led by Dončić, the Mavs can once again have a 50-win season.
Final Mavericks Win Total Pick: OVER 48.5 (-110)