The Miami Heat (40-35) visit the Toronto Raptors (37-38) on Tuesday night! Action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Raptors prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Miami has won two of its last three games and sits in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat covered 38% of their games while 52% went under the projected point total. Toronto has won two straight and sits in ninth place in the East. The Raptors covered 51% of their games while 56% went over. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the conference foes. Toronto holds a 2-1 advantage thus far although all three prior matchups came in the first month of the season.

Here are the Heat-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel

NBA Odds: Heat-Raptors Odds

Miami Heat: +4.5 (-110)

Toronto Raptors: -4.5 (-110)

Over: 219.5 (-110)

Under: 219.5 (-110)

How To Watch Heat vs. Raptors


Stream: TNT Live

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/ 4:30 p.m. PT

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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread

Miami finds themselves in a tight right for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference – a pivotal mark considering the sixth seed avoids the play-in game entirely. The Heat are tied at the moment and winning tonight would go a long way toward realizing that goal. Consequently, the Heat have a strong chance to cover as sizable underdogs thanks to their elite defense. Miami is the ultimate jackal-and-hyde team as they rank dead last in scoring but allow the second-fewest points per game. That being said, the Heat are certainly a threat on offense despite their point totals. Miami does an excellent job getting to the free throw line and capitalizing on their opportunities there, ranking eighth in free throws per game. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight considering the Raptors hold the eighth-highest foul rate in the league.

If the Herat are going to cover against a team they’ve lost outright to twice this season they are going to need a big night from their big three. While Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo have similar scoring numbers for the season, Butler has cemented himself as the alpha dog in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Butler has looked like his younger self, averaging 25.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 5.3 APG. He remains a force on the defensive end as well, chipping in 1.5 steals per game. Additionally, Butler has been uber-efficient, shooting 60% overall and 85% from the free throw line on 10.9 attempts per game.

For as good as Butler has been, he is dealing with a neck injury and may be limited tonight. Regardless of his status, both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will need to step up. Both have been solid since the All-Star break. Over those 16 games, Herro averaged 19.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 3.2 threes per game while shooting 40% from three. As for Bam, he continues to be one of the most under-discussed bigs in the game, averaging 18.6 PPG and 6.9 RPG.

Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread

Toronto has turned things around following a brutal start to the season and they now find themselves fighting for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The eighth seed is crucial in that they would need just one win to ensure their spot in the playoffs. Thus, they should be highly motivated to come out ahead tonight. That being said if the Raptors want to cover as sizable favorites they’re going to need to continue their defensive dominance. The Raptors have been lockdown since the All-Star break, allowing just 109.9 PPG – the fourth-lowest mark in the league over that span. They’ve been especially active in passing lanes, averaging a league-leading 10.1 steals per game over that span. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight as the Heat turned the ball over the eighth-most times per game since the break.

The Raptors feature an incredibly balanced offense as six players averaged over 14 points per game since the All-Star break. Of those, both Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet remain the focal points. Siakam averaged 21.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 5.4 APG over that span while shooting 45% from the floor. VanVleet is right behind him, chipping in 20.3 PPG and 8.6 APG. VanVleet has been crucial on both ends of the floor thanks to his 2.4 steals per game and 3.5 threes per game. His ability to stretch the floor and generate extra possessions could be crucial tonight against the slow-paced Heat.

Final Heat-Raptors Prediction & Pick

With both teams needing this game from a seeding perspective, look for a tight affair.

Final Heat-Raptors Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat +4.5 (-110)