The Charlotte Hornets end their three-game home stand tonight with a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Hornets prediction and pick.
The Hornets stand at 6-5 both overall and against the spread. They are coming off a blowout win against the New York Knicks.
The Mavericks stand at 5-4 both overall and against the spread. In the Mavs' most recent game, they cruised to victory over the Orlando Magic.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Mavericks-Hornets odds.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Hornets Odds
Dallas Mavericks -4 (-105)
Charlotte Hornets +4 (-115)
Over 221 Points (-110)
Under 221 Points (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Regardless of the outcome of this game, the Mavericks will be looking very carefully at one player: Kristaps Porzingis.
The star big man is expected to make his debut tonight after putting together a great season for Dallas last year, averaging 20.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks.
Porzingis will play limited minutes, but his return to the lineup gives Dallas a needed boost. The Mavs already rank pretty highly on the defensive end, allowing the third least points in the league so far while holding opponents to the second lowest three-point percentage.
Porzingis should beef up the interior defense and provide an intimidation factor at the rim, an important addition against Hornets guards LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, who both have excellent paint penetration ability.
The Mavericks will play without Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith, the team's fourth and sixth leading scorers, respectively. Luka Doncic will be asked to step up in their absence and continue his recent improvement.
After starting the season shooting 43% from the field and 16% from three in his first five games, Doncic has turned it around in the last three matchups, shooting 48% from the field and 31% from three.
Against a Hornets defense that has been surprisingly stingy, Doncic will have to shoulder the load here for the Mavericks to win and cover.
Why The Hornets Could Cover The Spread
After a slow start to the campaign, the Hornets have righted the ship.
Charlotte lost five of their first seven games, struggling to get in their groove. Since then, they have won four straight, including an impressive win over the New Orleans Pelicans and a sweep over the Atlanta Hawks.
It's also worth noting that even before they found their stride, the Hornets defeated the Mavs soundly in their fifth game of the season.
In that matchup, Charlotte was led by Miles Bridges and LaMelo Ball, who scored 22 and 20 points respectively.
Recently, the Hornets have been led on the offensive end by their prize free agent acquisition Gordon Hayward. Hayward is averaging 22.5 points per contest while shooting 50% from the field.
This is a prime spot for Hayward with Finney-Smith, the Mavericks' best perimeter defender, missing this matchup.
Defensively, the Hornets have been efficient this season. Although it's a small sample size, the Hornets have the eighth-best defensive rating in the league.
Charlotte relies on their swarming defense, creating havoc on the perimeter and racking up steals. Without Brunson, Doncic will be one of the Mavs' sole ball handlers. The Hornets can take advantage and amp up pressure on the young star.
Final Mavericks-Hornets Prediction & Pick
Against a fully healthy Mavericks squad and an in-form Porzingis, we might see different results here. But with two main Mavericks out and a question mark over the Latvian star, I will back Charlotte to continue their hot streak and win their fifth straight in a tight one over Dallas, not only covering the spread but winning as underdogs.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: CHA 117, DAL 113
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