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The Dallas Mavericks (6-3) face the Orlando Magic (2-9) on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Magic prediction and pick.
Dallas is 6-3 but has won four consecutive games. The Mavericks are just 3-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and six of their nine matchups have gone over. Orlando is just 2-9 but has faired slightly better against the spread. The Magic have covered 40% of their games and seven of their eleven matchups have gone over. The teams split the season series last season with each team defending their home court. Dallas won by 16, while Orlando won by two.
Here are the Mavericks-Magic NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Magic Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -7 (-110)
Orlando Magic: +7 (-110)
Over: 215.5 (-110)
Under: 215.5 (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas enters this matchup red-hot following four straight wins with the last three coming within a single basket. The Mavericks have ridden their high-powered offense all season as they're 13th in scoring but a stellar second in offensive efficiency. Surpassingly, the Mavericks are also near the top of the league in defense – allowing the sixth-fewest points per game. They are about average in rebounding differential (14th).
Dallas is, of course, led by do-it-all wing Luka Doncic. Doncic leads the league in scoring (36 PPG) and also leads his team in rebounding (8.4 RPG), assists (8.3 APG), and steals (1.9 SPG). Luka has been this incredible thanks to a solid field goal percentage (52.4%) but still has room to grow given his struggles from beyond the arc (29.7% from three). The Slovenian superstar has scored at least 30 points in every game this season and is coming off a 36-point outing against Brooklyn that featured his best three-point shooting game of the season (5-9 from three).
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While Luka is the heart and soul of Dallas, his supporting cast has done an excellent job filling in the holes around him. Guard Spencer Dinwiddie and center Christian Wood have been stellar at playing off Doncic. Both players average 15.6 PPG while each contributes in non-scoring ways as well. Dinwiddie is second on the team in assists with 4.3 and steals with 1.2. Wood, on the other hand, is second on the team in rebounding with 7.8 per game. Wood has seen his minutes strictly capped at 25 per game but given his strong play, it's only a matter of time before head coach Jasen Kidd gets him closer to 30 per game.
Why The Magic Could Cover The Spread
The Magic have predictably been one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. Although they turned heads with their win over the struggling Warriors last week, they followed it up in their most recent outing with a loss to the tanking Rockets. Orlando is one of the best rebounding teams in the league as they're third in rebounding differential. They're mediocre on both offense and defense, however, which is something to keep in mind when making a Mavericks-Magic prediction.
Orlando's 17th-ranked scoring offense is led by rookie standout Paolo Banchero. Paolo has been fantastic this season as he leads the Magic in scoring (23.5 PPG) and is second in rebounding (8.3 RPG). For a rookie, Paolo has been very efficient from the floor with a 46.1% field goal percentage but he has struggled from three to the tune of just 25.6%. Banchero is coming off two of his best game of the season in his last two outings. He had a 30-6-4 line against Houston and a 33-16-4 against Sacramento. Although the Mavericks have been stingy on defense, they don't have anyone who can match the rookie's combination of size and speed on the perimeter.
Outside of Banchero, second-year forward Franz Wagner is the name to watch for Orlando. Franz is a do-it-all wing who is a capable scorer despite a pass-first mentality. For the season, Wagner averages 18.1 PPG, 4.5 APG, and 3.9 RPG. Similarly to Paolo, Franz has a solid field goal percentage (48.8%) but has struggled from three (26.1%). He, too, has really picked up his game in recent matchups. Over his last two outings, he's averaged 27 points, four rebounds, and 6.5 assists and has shot 22-34 overall and 4-9 from three. Franz has been absolutely lethal at home this season where he's averaged 20.8 points on 59% shooting from the floor and 42% from three.
Final Mavericks-Magic Prediction & Pick
While the Mavericks have been one of the better all-around teams in the league this season, the Magic are a unique matchup given their tremendous size. And, despite Dallas' stellar record, they've struggled to cover large point spreads – something I see happening again here.
Final Mavericks-Magic Prediction & Pick: Orlando Magic +7 (-110)
